Diesel may die in 10 years

Just as the Euro-focussed alternative to petrol power starts to get some traction in Australia, with passenger-car sales forecast to improve to around 15 per cent of the country's annual purchases, Mercedes-Benz engine guru Dr Herbert Kohler says the diesel is in trouble.

He believes stricter emission controls, and the rapidly-improving efficiency of small-capacity gasoline engines, could mean the end of diesels.

"I have some doubts that diesel will survive the next five to ten years," says Kohler, the vice-president of e-Drive and Future Mobility at Benz.

Kohler is still a fan of the current diesel powerplants and says Mercedes-Benz is making solid progress on a hybrid technology, called DiesOtto, that combines the best of the two combustion systems. Engineers have already run test drives and there is promise.

"I'm convinced that will come in total and as described," Kohler says. "They are running on the test bench at the moment. We are driving the first cars. We are able to use both kinds of combustion methods, very smoothly to merge into each other. You cannot feel noise or shaking."

Kohler says Mercedes is currently focussing on a range of technologies under the BlueEfficiency banner, from active aerodynamics to on-demand engine accessories - such as the alternator and power steering - and DiesOtto to improve the performance of petrol engines. There are also turbocharger and supercharger systems, smaller-capacity engines and baby two and three-cylinder motors.

"At the moment we think that with gasoline engines that another 15 per cent (efficiency) is feasible. This is what we think today. Never say never…" he says.

He is also convinced that BlueEfficiency works as an overall approach to better fuel economy and reduced emissions.

"It is always some sort of lighthouse project," Kohler says.