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Bubble burst? Global new car sales to slow but electric car market share to grow in 2024: Moody's

Moody's Investors Service expects new car sales to increase, but at a much slower pace than last year.

New data analysis reporting from Moody's Investors Service says we can expect to see the global share of electric cars in the new-car market continue to grow, despite slowing sales in some regions.

The report also says 2024's total global new-car sales should exceed the 89.8 million recorded in 2023, but by a smaller margin than the 10.8 per cent growth 2023 saw over 2022.

"For the next 12-18 months, we expect a continuation of the recovery of the global light vehicle sales, though at a much slower pace," says the report.

The report outlines the increase of new-car sales in 2023 compared to previous years, improving upon the numbers reported during the peak of the global pandemic.

Importantly, Moody's notes that it expects to see the new EV share in the global market to continue to increase despite slowing sales growth in some markets.

"Global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales rose by one-third, to 11 million last year (based on provisional data), raising BEV penetration to 12.5 per cent from 10 per cent in 2022," the report says.

"However, BEV sales growth recently slowed down resulting in internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, including hybrids, fuelling the stronger than expected global sales growth in H2 2023.

"We project BEV penetration to increase towards 15 per cent in 2024, slightly below the 16 per cent we previously expected.

"The penetration rate will be driven by improved product availability and attractive discounts.

"We maintain our forecast of BEV penetration hitting a third of global sales by 2030 and nearly half by 2035.

"We do not think the recent slowdown in BEV adoption will hurt global vehicle sales volumes, with consumers instead opting for ICE and hybrid versions."

While electric-car sales continue to grow in Australia, 87,217 in 2023 versus 33,410 in 2022, it's unclear whether its pace will continue to grow.

Meanwhile, 2024 kicked off strong with "89,782 new vehicles, 5.8 per cent more than January 2023 and breaking the previous January record of 88,551 set in 2018" according to the FCAI.

Chris Thompson
Journalist
Racing video games, car-spotting on road trips, and helping wash the family VL Calais Turbo as a kid were all early indicators that an interest in cars would stay present in...
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