Will Toyota's gamble pay off?
By Stephen Ottley · 03 Aug 2026
Toyota is either two steps ahead of almost everyone else in the car industry - or is set to waste untold millions on an unpopular technology.Despite the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) as well as the surge of interest in plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) the Japanese brand remains committed to hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCEV) technology.Currently only Toyota and Hyundai are invested in the technology in Australia, which means not only are their limited models - the Toyota Mirai and the upcoming new Hyundai Nexo - but as even Toyota puts it almost “non-existent” refueling locations. In fact, Hyundai’s head office hydrogen station is the only refueler available in Sydney.But despite the lack of infrastructure for both refuelling and producing hydrogen fuel for vehicles, Toyota remains steadfast in its belief that its time will come. So much so it has committed to introduce the HiLux FCEV by 2028, which will join the diesel and EV variants of the popular ute.However, in order to ensure there is customer interest in the niche technology, Toyota is having to enter the fuel market and will produce its own hydrogen at its Centre of Excellence in Altona, Victoria. While Toyota has been a reluctant entrant into the EV market - with only the HiLux, bZ4X and bZ4X Touring offered locally - the company believes its investment in hydrogen will ultimately pay-off in the long-term. “ So we've been investing, like we were investing in hybrid technology development for quite a long time, we've been doing that with hydrogen as well, for a long time,” explained John Pappas, Toyota Australia’s head of sales and marketing.“We've had two generations of Mirai now in hydrogen - and we've learnt a lot. They've been lease programs with fleet customers. We understand exactly, to your point, that the infrastructure is pretty much non-existent. You can't get any scale. And that's been the big challenge, because the only way you can reduce the cost of hydrogen is by producing more and getting the scale.“So in order for us to do that, we've invested in Altona Centre of Excellence. We've invested in a hydrogen centre, and that is production storage of hydrogen. So we are now also investing in what we call relocatable refuelers, right?"So for example, when we bring the Hilux FCEV to market, we know that based on the infrastructure, like you're saying, you can't go to the bowser."So we're going to have to provide the ecosystem to some extent. There's many partners in this ecosystem of hydrogen, right? Viva Energy, and there's many partners, but in order to support the customer as we bring hydrogen fuel cell in, we're looking at supporting them also with relocatable refuelers,” he said.That’s right, Toyota will not only supply HiLux FCEV to fleet customers, but will also provide the fuel and refuellers to ensure they can keep running. It would be the equivalent of a car maker refining its own oil into petrol and then providing remote refuelling tankers. But such is Toyota’s belief in the long-term viability of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that it is willing to make the commitment.“ We'll produce the hydrogen in Altona, we've got an electrolyzer there,” Pappas told CarsGuide.“So we'll produce hydrogen, we'll then transport the hydrogen to locations that we've got the HiLux FCEV fleet base, in order to basically be able to refuel our customers, right? Now, obviously to do that you’ve got to partner with other people."Hyundai's been one of those partners for us, where we've actually developed consortiums to try and work with other people like Hyundai and the government to be able to try and promote an ecosystem for hydrogen.“So this is a long game. This is a long game. This is not where we're going to get suddenly the hydrogen HiLux is going to become the number one selling vehicle or we're going to be inundated with demand. Because the technology's going to take time, the infrastructure's going to take a lot of time."In line with that, we need to be prepared for that time, right? So that's why we're bringing in the hydrogen HiLux and that’s why we’re doing what we’re doing investing in hydrogen in Altona.”The Centre of Excellence is located at the company’s former manufacturing plant and includes a design centre in addition to the Hydrogen Centre. According to the company it can produce up to 80kg of hydrogen per day on-site. It is all part of the long-term play for the brand that hydrogen is the ultimate solution for carbon neutral trucking and heavy industry vehicles, as well as the likes of the HiLux and LandCruiser.“Looking at it from a technical point-of-view, the advantage of hydrogen is the ability to carry a lot of energy in a light weight,” Ray Munday, the Senior Manager Product Planning and Pricing at Toyota.“And so in terms of the need for pickup trucks, and also trucking industry, it's still a long way for batteries to be able to do that, several generations probably. So that's really the answer for hydrogen, is that there is a BEV that can do a lot of stuff, but it's a long way for battery tech to go there.“It's not like we're not working on other things but that is the reason for hydrogen is that technical advantage that exists there. And then that allows the combination of fast refuel and light weight, which in vehicles that need to tow, go a long way, carry a lot of weight, payload, driving range, they are critical factors for moving."Diesel can do a lot of that stuff, but of course diesel has challenges. And hydrogen is a zero CO2 emission fuel. If you consider what diesel is doing now, that's where something like hydrogen goes in the future.”Which means that hydrogen technology will likely be limited to heavy vehicles, such as trucks and buses, rather than passenger vehicles like the Mirai - assuming Toyota's long-term gamble pays off.