Can Ford rebound in 2023? New Mustang, F-150 and electric models key to Blue Oval growth | Opinion

Ford will be relying on a new dual-ute strategy to bounce back from a difficult sales year in 2022, with the still-fresh Ranger set to be joined by the highly-anticipated F-150.

The Blue Oval ended 2022 with a 6.7 per cent decline in sales, largely off the back of a poor year for the Mustang (down 33.3 per cent) as it was hit with supply restrictions and the impending arrival of a new model. It also didn’t help that sales of the Puma compact SUV were down 25.2 per cent and the brand dropped the Fiesta ST and Focus ST from its range, leaving it with just six nameplates.

Losing the hot hatches may be a big blow for the Ford Performance image, but it won’t have too much impact on the sales figures as only 258 were sold in 2022 and just 1077 in ‘21. 

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That’s the bad news for the brand, the good news is the new Ranger remains in demand with customers, the new Everest is selling well and its often-overlooked Escape mid-size SUV enjoyed a strong year in ‘22 which the company will be looking to build on.

Ranger 4x4 sales actually dipped slightly in ‘22, suffering a 6.2 per cent drop as part of the transition to the new model and ongoing supply constraints. Still, Ford managed to sell more than 43,000 examples of the outgoing and incoming ute which made it, by far, its most popular model.

Assuming no major supply disruptions the Ranger should remain the brand’s best-seller through 2023. And it will get some extra support later this year when the F-150 arrives to take on the Chevrolet Silverado and Ram 1500 in the expanding large pick-up market.

Ford Australia is converting America’s favourite ute to right-hand drive locally after failing to get a factory supply like it has for the Mustang. But that should be little obstacle for sales, given that is the same situation for both the Chevrolet and Ram models.

Ford has confirmed it will offer one engine option, the 3.5-litre turbocharged V6 petrol engine and two trim grades (XLT and Lariat), although pricing remains under wraps. Both the equivalent Chevrolet and Ram models are priced above $120,000 so expect a similar price point for the F-150.

The F-150 will be available with a 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6 petrol engine.

Even at that price there is potential for the F-150 to add meaningful sales volume for Ford. Ram sold 5481 examples of the 1500 in ‘22 (but does offer a more affordable, circa-$85k previous generation model) and General Motors Specialty Vehicles (GMSV) reported 1823 sales of the Silverado. If Ford can match the Chevrolet it would be a notable new addition and comfortably replace the loss of the Fiesta and Focus small cars, while likely being more profitable.

Then there’s the company’s other incoming American icon, the new-generation Mustang. The challenge here is that the new model isn’t due in showrooms until the final few months of the year - and that’s assuming no delays caused by US demand - so the current ‘Stang will effectively be in run-out for the majority of the year. 

Given the need to shift production to the new model, don’t be surprised if sales of the pony car decline as the year goes on. But if history is any guide, the arrival of the new model should provide a major boost that should position Ford for a strong finish to ‘23.

The Mustang Mach E is yet to be confirmed for Oz.

Another key moment in Ford’s history set to play out this year is the introduction of its first all-electric model. Unfortunately it’s neither of its two most exciting EVs - the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning - but the E-Transit commercial van.

While it may lack the same ‘wow factor’ as the Mach-E and Lightning, it does allow Ford to finally move into the electric vehicle market at a time when buyers are becoming more accepting. It effectively becomes a soft launch for the Mach-E, which isn’t confirmed but should be in local showrooms by 2025 at the latest.

Finally, Ford’s small SUVs, Escape and Puma, are arguably its biggest opportunities for growth in ‘23. Escape sales were up 30.2 per cent in ‘22 but the Puma dropped 25.2 per cent and both remain relatively small players in large market segments.

The E-Transit will be the first fully electric Ford offered in Australia.

Ford sold only 2408 Puma in ‘22, only outselling the Nissan Juke, Renault Captur and Suzuki Ignis in the light SUV market. The Escape didn’t fare much better, with its 2179 sales leaving it near the bottom of the mid-size SUV market and trailing the likes of the Haval H6, Volkswagen Tiguan and Renault Koleos.

Arguably Ford’s greatest challenge in ‘23 will be trying to grow sales of these two SUVs, with the Ranger, Everest and Mustang already established and not needing a major marketing push. On the contrary, the potential for the Puma and Escape are huge - the best-selling mid-size SUV was the Toyota RAV4, with 34,845 sales last year. While it’s unrealistic to expect the Escape to get near that figure, there’s clearly scope for Ford to grow the market for its model. Doubling sales - which is, granted, no easy task - would make the Escape the company’s third best-selling model behind Ranger 4x4 and Everest.

The flip-side to this, is another down year for Escape and Puma leaves Ford reliant on the Ranger and Everest even more for its sales rebound and that’s a precarious position for a brand that suffered a decline in 2022. Like so many brands, supply will be crucial but Ford also needs to ensure it does a better job of pitching its smaller SUVs to would-be buyers, gets its EV roll-out started right and hope the Mustang arrives on time in order to enjoy a successful 2023.