The end of ute dominance? Will the Ford Ranger be Australia's top seller for 2024, or will the Toyota RAV4 hybrid be the first SUV to claim the top spot | Analysis

Could an SUV top the sales charts in Australia for the first time ever this year?

Given their dominance in the sales charts and on the roads, it’s surprising that a high-riding SUV has never hit the number one spot for year-end sales in Australia.

The top spot was dominated by sedans and wagons like the Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon up until 2011, when the Mazda3 small car changed the game. Another small model, the Toyota Corolla, dominated for a number of years until 2016 when the first ute topped the charts here — the Toyota HiLux.

That model was top dog for years until 2023 when Ford returned to the top with the locally developed Ranger.

But 2024 could be the year of the SUV, if Toyota has a bumper December.

New-vehicle sales to the end of November show that the current leader of the pack is the Ford Ranger ute, with combined 4x2 and 4x4 sales of 58,100 units. Its closest rival, the ageing Toyota HiLux, has slipped to third spot overall with a total of 50,166 sales year-to-date.

But the second best-selling car so far, and the model that could shoot to the top, is the ever-popular Toyota RAV4. The medium SUV is sitting on 53,599 sales for the year - the most the model has ever sold.

Despite the fact that the current-generation RAV4 is nearing the end of its model life ahead of a new model surfacing in late 2025 has not harmed sales in any way.

In fact, the current model’s proven formula of efficient powertrains, strong value, a spacious interior and solid reliability has no doubt helped boost sales to their highest levels since it launched in May 2019.

Right now there is a 4501-unit gap between the Ranger and the RAV4. For Toyota to snatch the crown back, it would have to have a massive month of RAV4 sales in December. And Ford would have to have a poor month of Ranger sales, too.

But stranger things have happened. And RAV4 sales have been on the up for months now. The Ranger started the year topping the charts most months, but the RAV4 has been the best seller for a number of months later in the year.

In the past, Toyota has pushed a lot of cars through dealers in an effort to finish the year strong, so it could in theory defeat the Ranger.

But the likelihood of Ford just lying down and letting Toyota claim honours is low. So our money is still on the Ranger for top spot for the second year running.

All up there are six SUVs in the top 10 to the end of November. The next best-selling after the RAV4 is the Mitsubishi Outlander in fifth place, but nipping at its heels is the Ranger’s sibling, the Everest large SUV.

The MG ZS, Mazda CX-5 and Tesla Model Y round out the top 10 in eight to 10th place respectively.

Top 10 brands year-to-date November 2024

Ranking	Make/model	Sales
1	Ford Ranger	58,100
2	Toyota RAV4	53,599
3	Toyota HiLux	50,166
4	Isuzu D-Max	27,824
5	Mitsubishi Outlander	25,622
6	Ford Everest	24,018
7	Toyota Corolla	22,526
8	MG ZS	21,462
9	Mazda CX-5	21,237
10	Tesla Model Y	19,392