Can Kia topple Mazda in 2025? How the Kia Tasman ute, EV5 electric car and next-gen Mazda CX-5 could shape the sales charts in Australia this year

Kia set a sales record in Australia last year and the company’s boss has plans to smash that record again in 2025.

New models including the crucial Tasman ute and more are expected to boost Kia’s tally by about 10 per cent over and above its record-breaking 2024 figures, according to Kia Australia Chief Executive Officer Damien Meredith.

“We did 81,787 and obviously that was our best year ever. Our expectation is to do around about 90,000 in 2025,” he confirmed at the Kia K4 launch this month.

“There are things outside our control, macro economic issues, and there's obviously some political, geographic things that are occurring around the world that are going to affect how people feel about the future, etc, but we're just going to stick to our plan, sell that 90,000 and do the mix that we have to do to ensure that we meet the requirements of NVES (New Vehicle Efficiency Standards).

“So there are a lot of variables in play in 2025 but we're confident in our product, we're confident in our strategy, we're confident in our dealer network that we will get that number. So a challenging year, definitely. But also exciting.”

With that 81,787 figure, Kia finished 2024 in fourth place behind Toyota, Ford and Mazda, but ahead of Mitsubishi and sister brand Hyundai.

Mazda recorded 95,987 sales in 2024, a 4.0 per cent year-on-year dip, bringing the Korean and Japanese brands closer.

But could Kia surpass 90,000 and overtake Mazda in 2024?

That depends on a few factors. If Mazda experiences a sales boost from the final two large SUVs to launch, the CX-70 and CX-80, or if the discontinuation of the Mazda6 has any impact. A new CX-5 is due late in the year but might be too late to have an impact.

It will also depend if Kia’s new models do well. Yes, the EV3 will add volume and there is a full year of EV5, but Kia should also be able to shift half of its 20,000 annual target for Tasman that lands mid-year. Updated versions of the Sportage, EV6 and the new Cerato-replacing K4 should also help Kia’s case.

Kia Australia Chief Operating Officer Dennis Piccoli told CarsGuide that market conditions are becoming more challenging, but said the raft of new product could help Kia hold steady or move up to third place on the sales ladder.

“That depends on where Mazda ends up, I guess. We had a great year last year. It was a record as we went through earlier on. At this stage with the inclusion of Tasman, and then we've got the addition of a full year of EV5 and EV3, we think we can hit 90,000, but the market is still quite fickle at the moment,” he said.

“You know, cost of living is having an impact, even visiting some dealers over the last few days. The order writes are quite strong for us relative to everybody else, but you know, the dealers are reporting that it is starting to get a little softer. So it all hinges on where Mazda ends up. Look, I suspect that we'll probably end up in fourth spot, but quite possibly could end up in third.”

Piccoli said he is conscious of the large number of new, largely Chinese brands, launching in 2025, but said Kia was well prepared to weather the storm.

“We are mindful of some of the new brands that are coming through. There's some pretty cutthroat prices coming through, and then even with some new brands that are pushing themselves and calling themselves premium and what have you.

“But in the end, we've done a lot of brand building over the years. We've established a solid dealer network. So we're keeping a watchful eye on the situation in the marketplace, and also the macro economic factors that are in play as well.”