Hot takes for 2025: What will be the best-selling new model, will the Kia Tasman ute fire or flop, and will electric cars like Tesla Model Y continue to stagnate? | Opinion
By Stephen Ottley · 11 Jan 2025
Christmas is a fading memory, the New Year’s hangovers have cleared and we’re still getting used to writing ‘2025’ so you know what that means?Hot takes time.Yes, it’s January and with a whole year of new cars ahead of us, I’m going to try and predict the future. But while these might meet the clickbait definition of a ‘hot take’ these aren’t just random thoughts, but rather these are five scenarios that I believe could play out in 2025 based on previous trends and the other available evidence.To be fair, I’m basing this at least in part to Toyota Australia boss Sean Hanley’s own prediction that he believes the RAV4 can leapfrog the Ford Ranger into first place. I agree with him that the Ranger will need to work hard to stay at the top of the charts, with its gap to the RAV4 less than 4000 sales in 2024.The Ranger will be entering its fourth year on sale, which means it no longer feels ‘new’ but is also too early for a mid-life upgrade, so it will need to rely on new additions like the Super Duty and plug-in hybrid to keep its interest high.The latter is really the key for Ford, with the Ranger PHEV having to face a direct rival in the form of the BYD Shark 6 - which wasn’t on the horizon when Ford announced its plug-in back in 2023.Meanwhile, the RAV4 remains beloved by SUV buyers, despite its many rivals, and Toyota is (reportedly) carrying over a healthy order bank that should maintain its steady sales pace.Whatever happens, it should be a close finish in the sales race.It’s safe to say Kia has copped some flak for the styling of its Tasman ute, which has raised concerns over its sales potential. But, personally, I think it will be a success story for Kia even if it doesn’t achieve the headline-grabbing sales figures the brand is hoping for.Kia’s goal to sell more than 20,000 Tasmans per year is an ambitious target, even if the styling had been universally praised, given the strength of the Ford Ranger and Toyota HiLux. But the truth is looks are subjective and the Tasman’s ultimate sales potential will come down to pricing and specifications. If Kia can give ute buyers a good value proposition, then undoubtedly many will jump aboard, regardless of what anyone says about the styling.Fleet operators who don’t care about subjective elements like style will likely be wooed by the expected five-star ANCAP rating and Kia’s reputation for reliability.Bottom line, even if Kia sells half of its expected numbers, adding 10,000 Tasmans to Kia’s tally is all incremental growth for a brand that has never previously offered a ute - and that will make it a big success.One of the key takeaways from the 2024 sales was the huge growth of hybrids (HEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) compared to the stalled sales of electric vehicles (EVs). Sales of pure electric models were only up 4.7 per cent after growing more than 160 per cent in 2023.That’s an enormous change of fortunes for EVs, which have always largely been underpinned by Tesla, which had a down year in 2024. Whether Tesla can rebound is one major question, with its sales down by more than 16,000 sales, but other brands will need to start selling more of their EVs if the market is to accelerate its growth again.It appears as though the market for EVs has largely been catered to, with a huge variety of makes and models across the spectrum of size and price, so there’s no longer any major barriers for EVs apart from consumer demand.Australians seem unconvinced by EVs in the broad sense, preferring dual-cab utes and mid-size SUVs with hybrid engines, and it seems unlikely to change in the short-term so I wouldn’t be betting on a big turnaround for electric sales in 2025.NVES, or the New Vehicle Efficiency Standards, grabbed plenty of headlines in 2024 as the car industry pushed back on long-overdue emissions regulations like kids not wanting to eat their vegetables. But despite the kicking and screaming from certain members of industry, NVES officially began on January 1 and the world hasn’t stopped turning.Inevitably there will be change thanks to NVES, with car brands needing to introduce more fuel-efficient vehicles or face financial penalties, however the government has effectively given the industry three years to sort itself out. Any brand above the limit in 2025 has until the end of 2027 to generate (or buy from a rival brand) ‘credits’ to offset their less-efficient models.In other words, expect ‘situation normal’ in 2025 with all the usual models you find in dealerships, albeit with a ramp up of more hybrids and PHEVs like we’ve begun to see in the last 18 months.Normally you’d expect the arrival of two big name models, which nearly double the options for buyers, to result in a sales boom for a particular market. And yet, despite the introduction of the Ford F-150 and Toyota Tundra, sales of ‘$100k plus utes’ (otherwise known as the US-style pick-ups) were up just a marginal 2.4 per cent in 2024.The segment still sold more than 10,000 units in 2024, which is an impressive number when you consider these are expensive and niche vehicles, but the arrival of the Ford and Toyota should have been a boost. They certainly helped offset the sales decline of the Ram 1500, which dropped as the current V8-powered model entered run-out, but it speaks to the limitations of the market.With the arrival of the new six-cylinder Ram 1500 to go along with the F-150 and Tundra, it’s hard to see the total volume of $100k plus utes getting much higher than 10,000 per year.