What's in store for the future of Holden and Ford in Australia?

Everything's riding on the replacements for the Falcon and the Commodore.

When you walk into a Ford or Holden showroom in 2018, one thing will be certain: everything you see will have arrived on a boat.

Holden stops building the Commodore late in 2017 and Ford calls time on the Falcon at the end of next year. What is not known is whether buyers will be tempted by what replaces them.

Ford was first to declare its intentions with the Mondeo, which was launched in April as the nominated Falcon successor.

A global model sold in the US as the Fusion, Australian cars are being shipped from a factory in Spain. The Mondeo comes as a wagon or hatchback and starts at $32,790, or $3610 below the price of the cheapest Falcon.

It's early days for Mondeo but it's the most technically advanced car we offer

That buys a 2.0-litre, four-cylinder 149kW turbocharged petrol engine with six-speed automatic gearbox, with a more powerful petrol or frugal diesel also in the range. A performance model could be added later, but unlike the Falcon, there's no six-cylinder or V8, and power goes to the front wheels rather than the rears.

Ford Australia spokesman Neil McDonald said fleets had cornered first deliveries but Mondeo's strong equipment list would lure private buyers too.

"It's early days for Mondeo but it's the most technically advanced car we offer so it's sure to attract new customers and some Falcon buyers who change over," he said.

When pensioner Alan Chalker decided it was time to move out of his five-year-old Falcon XR6 he opted for a Mondeo Trend Ecoboost, which starts at $37,290.

Sophisticated equipment — including a lane-departure warning system and smart cruise control — helped win him over.

"If you move off your lane without putting the blinkers on the wheel shakes — there are marvellous tricks like that. If I had these in the XR6 I wouldn't have changed," Mr Chalker said.

Another plus was the Mondeo's cargo space. "The luggage compartment is brilliant — the hatchback lifts up so you don't have to bend and there's more room than the XR6. It hasn't got the grunt of the XR6, but it's plenty fast enough."

Mr McDonald said other enthusiasts would switch to the US-built Mustang two-door, with the company already holding 2000 deposits. Prices start at $44,990 and run to $63,990 for a V8 convertible, with first Mustang deliveries due in December.

Ford's other local model, the Territory, will live on as a rebadged SUV import. That will almost certainly be the Edge, which has been built in Canada since 2006. With four or six-cylinder petrol and diesel engines, and front or all-wheel drive, it's shorter than a Territory but includes a seven-seat version.

Holden also plans to rebadge an import with the Commodore name and has decided which car it will be. However, with more than two years left to run, it wants to maximise the locally built Commodore's potential in a market where large sedans now attract fewer than 4 per cent of buyers.

The next Commodore will absolutely live up to its name

Prime candidate for rebadging is the German-built Insignia, a large sedan just launched here in performance guise. With all-wheel drive and a turbocharged 239kW petrol V6, the Insignia VXR starts at $51,990 — $9000 more than the most affordable Commodore SS V8.

Spokeswoman Kate Lonsdale said "the next Commodore will absolutely live up to its name" as a value-for-money family car with a performance edge.

Holden and Ford have seen their market shares cut in half with the decline in demand for large sedans, with fewer than one in 10 buyers opting for a Holden and Ford's slice plummeting to 7 per cent.