The end of diesel dual-cab dominance: Forget the 2025 Toyota HiLux and Ford Ranger, Australia will soon have a new best-selling vehicle - and it's not a ute but the Toyota RAV4 Hybrid SUV

The end of diesel dual-cab dominance could at last be upon us, with Toyota predicting the end of the HiLux's reign as the brand's best-selling vehicle, while also tipping the next model to be Australia's number one.

Earlier this year, Toyota Australia's VP of sales and marketing, Sean Hanley, predicted a new winner in the new-vehicle sales race, and one that wasn't wearing a HiLux or Ranger badge.

And last month, that prediction was proven right, with the Toyota RAV4 named Australia's best-selling vehicle, as the HiLux and Ranger tanked.

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The Toyota HiLux recorded 4313 sales in September, down 25.3 per cent from the 5776 it managed in September 2023. The Ford Ranger shifted 4485 units, down 17.4 per cent on the 5429 it managed in the same month last year.

That opened the door for the Toyota RAV4 to claim the title of Australia's best-selling vehicle for the second month running, shifting 5182 units in September, up a massive 85.2 per cent on the 2798 it managed in the same month last year.

And that could be just the beginning, says Toyota.

"I think RAV will be incredibly strong. Can it be the number-one car? I have no idea, I don't know how many Ford Rangers they've got," Toyota Australia's sales and marketing VP, Sean Hanley, told CarsGuide.

"It could be number-one for Toyota, that's possible, and I reckon it could knock on the door of the (Ford Ranger). I don't know what they're going to sell, but (if we do) anything over 53,000 in a year, it's a chance."

A petrol-hybrid SUV knocking off diesel dual cabs in the sales race would signify a changing of the guard in Australia, and it would come as welcome news to Toyota, which has also forecasted an eventual end to diesel as a fuel source in our market.

The popularity of the RAV4 would insulate Toyota against such an eventuality. Ford, too, has a diesel insurance policy, recently unveiling the plug-in hybrid Ranger which will arrive here next year.

Meanwhile, Toyota has confirmed it is working on a plug-in hybrid system for the next-gen HiLux.

"To be honest, I was talking about the end of diesel way back when before NVES was even a thought," Mr Hanley told CarsGuide back in March.

"I think diesel will be around for a little bit, but we've got synthetic fuels coming, we've got hydrogen coming, we've got BEVs coming.

"You'd think out of all of (the fuel types), it's probably the one at the greatest risk. But we have diesel because it's relatively cheap and capable, and we have infrastructure and we have ICE engines that take it.

"But we're also now finding out that petrol-turbo four cylinder engines aren't bad either. So technology is moving on."