Is Toyota too popular for its own good? Why extended wait times for the RAV4, HiLux, Camry, Corolla and other models could hurt the dominate brand | Opinion

It’s the moment Toyota’s rivals have been waiting for - a soft-spot in the Japanese giant’s underbelly.

The knock-on impact of the Coronavirus pandemic and the resulting global supply chain crisis has resulted in long waits for limited supply for most car brands in Australia. But no brand has been as impacted as Toyota, in large part because it simply has more demand than its rivals owing to its commanding lead in the sales race.

As we recently revealed, some Toyota dealers are quoting wait times as long as four years or “never” for selected models, while even the more available options carry up a six-month wait. As we said, Toyota isn’t alone in this predicament but the Japanese giant arguably has the most to lose.

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Being the market sales leader by a significant margin means more customers, more orders and therefore longer waits. As long as customers remain patient that’s fine, but what happens when buyers decide they can’t wait six, nine or even 12 months for their new RAV4 or HiLux?

Each car brand is dealing with the current challenges in their own ways and that means some makes and models are faring better than others. If the likes of Mazda, Hyundai, Kia, Mitsubishi, Ford and even MG can meet the demand of impatient Toyota customers it could be the start of an erosion in the Japanese company’s commanding lead over its rivals in the sales race.

And in a recent CarsGuide consumer survey, it was revealed customers aren't shy about switching brands and models if wait times are too long.

For example, the RAV4 has been one of Toyota’s most popular models in recent years, resulting in wait times as long as 18 months for the Hybrid model. As a result, sales of the model are steady for 2022, despite the overall mid-size SUV market being up by almost six per cent.

Specifically the RAV4 is up just 0.1 per cent, while the new Mitsubishi Outlander is on the rise, with sales up more than 40 per cent, while the Kia Sportage has more than doubled its sales over the same period in 2021 thanks to its all-new model.

New metal typically leads to a sales spike and some of Toyota’s most popular models are facing fresh competition in the second half of 2022. This includes the HiLux, which is actually still selling strongly - ahead of 2021 sales in both the 4x2 and 4x4 variants - but will have to compete against the hype of the new-generation Ford Ranger that launches this month.

Ford has managed to stay close in the 4x4 ute sales despite being in run-out with the current model, so if the Blue Oval has prepared its supply correctly (and that’s a big ‘if’ in this period of time) it should have a very strong finish to 2022, and potentially knock-off the HiLux for the best-selling individual model for the year.

Obviously, even with all the challenges, it’s highly unlikely any brand will even get close to Toyota’s overall sales in ‘22 - to June it has more than double the amount of market share as its nearest rival, Mazda - but to even lose the prestige of having the best-selling individual model would be a blow for a brand that prides itself of being the most popular in this country.

In reality, there’s not a lot Toyota Australia can do to fix this problem, supply is determined largely by overseas management and it’s not good business practice for the brand to turn away customers. Ultimately the solution will come in time, as the supply chain crisis subsides and production ramps up again. 

In the meantime Toyota will need to watch its back as its rivals try to take advantage of this opportunity to pinch sales from the market leader.