Big electric car shake-up coming? Can the 2025 Kia EV5 and MG4 knock the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 off their throne and can the BYD Seal, BYD Atto 3 and BYD Dolphin make a comeback

A new world order is forming in the electric car segment in Australia.

Tesla and BYD might not be the mighty forces they once were as two EV princes wait in the wings to snatch the crown.

The Tesla Model Y, which was streets ahead of the rest in sales through 2024, has come back to the pack.

Tesla sales were down 33 per cent in January, following a more than 16 per cent drop in 2024.

It shifted just 465 Model Ys and 274 Model 3s. The Model Y was still the best selling electric car in Australia in January but it was down on its usual performance of more than 1500 a month in 2024.

An updated version of the Model Y is due in coming months, but it will be significantly more expensive. The current version will likely be in short supply until that point meaning it could give others a head start in the EV sales race.

BYD sales also fell off a cliff in January down almost 50 per cent. Sales of its plug-in hybrid Sealion 6 SUV kept the brand afloat but EV sales were down dramatically with the Atto 3 down 77.4 per cent, Dolphin down 66.8 per cent and Seal down 91.2 per cent.

Recent port issues are likely to blame for part of the slow sales, but the brand has also announced new cheaper variants of the Dolphin and Atto 3 to boost sales.

Surely it's just a blip on the radar and both brands will roar back in the coming months, but what if they don't reach the same EV heights as before?

This could open the opportunity for the Kia EV5 and MG4 electric cars to have a crack at the Model Y’s crown.

The MG4 was the second best selling EV in January with 440 sales and the EV5 was third with 289.

A big selling point for the MG and Kia are their warranties: MG has a 10 year/250,000km guarantee and Kia has a seven year/unlimited km security blanket. Both easily trump Tesla’s four year/80,000km warranty.

Both also sell through a conventional dealer model rather than a majority online portal like BYD and Tesla.

Both the MG4 and EV5 are both built in China, same as the Australian delivered Teslas, which give them the same price, supply and short shipping advantage as the market leaders.

Australians also now have far more choice in the electric car space compared to 12 months ago. 

A wave of new brands from China include Deepal, Geely, Leapmotor, XPeng and Zeekr, which all launched with Model Y sized alternatives cheaper than their big name rival.

Those brands — with the exception of Leapmotor — don't yet report sales.

Conventional car makers have started to bring their own EVs online to help dilute the market that was very concentrated on just a few brands a year ago.

The chances are Tesla will rebound in the coming months from its January sales, in what is a traditionally slow month for the brand.

Kia is unlikely to muster the 25,000 EV5 sales needed to claim the top spot with the brand predicting a run rate of 400 a month in 2025.

MG on the other hand has shown it is willing to heavily discount the MG4 to boost sales.

For a short period it was the cheapest electric car on sale during 2024, with the base model costing just a smidge more than $30,000 drive-away. The price cut saw MG4s fly off the lot, outselling both Tesla models combined in October 2024.

This year will be a challenge for many of the large electric car sellers as cost of living pressures bite and the well has run dry of early adopters willing to pay overs for the zero-emissions tech.