Big name car brands most at risk
By Stephen Ottley · 13 Aug 2026
The Australian car industry is in the middle of a major shake-up and not all brands are likely to survive it. In fact, I’d go so far as to say some of the biggest name brands, car makers we have loved for decades, may disappear within the next five years.That’s the hard reality of the dramatic change that is sweeping the industry. The new wave of Chinese car brands have arrived and quickly established themselves with solid market share. But that share has to come from somewhere and the reality is, the brands that are feeling the squeeze more than any other are those smack dab at the heart of the market.Looking at the sales data for the first half of 2026 it’s clear who are the biggest winners and losers. Geely is up 494.6 per cent, BYD has risen 124.1 per cent and Chery sales are 76.8 per cent improved, plus both GWM, MG, Omoda-Jaecoo and Zeekr are also increasing their presence.So where are those buyers coming from? Well, Toyota is down 21.4 per cent, Mazda is 17.2 per cent down and Ford has dropped 10.6 per cent. But I’m not suggesting any of those brands are doomed, Toyota is confident of a second half bounce back and Ford remains atop the all-important ute market. Instead, the bigger concern are the brands in the middle and lower half of the top 10, which are shedding sales at a higher rate and face increasing and long-term pressure from the newer arrivals. Nissan has dropped 32.8 per cent, Mitsubishi is down 25.7 per cent, Subaru down 25.6 per cent and Volkswagen has dropped 16.5 per cent, and there is no clear pathway for them to regain so much lost ground.While I’ve been talking strictly in sale percentage terms, the raw numbers don’t make good reading for those brands. BYD is obviously having a huge year, notching over 52,000 sales, but it’s brands like Geely (10,970 sales), Omoda-Jaecoo (8808) and even Zeekr (5835) that are starting to make serious in-roads on the likes Subaru (14,817), Nissan (13,854) and Volkswagen (12,333).In simple terms, the Australia new car pie is only so big, it typically hovers around the 1.2 million mark each year, so the slice of pie for each brand will get smaller as more and more brands enter the market. Short of a sudden and dramatic expansion of the number of people buying new cars, all of the established brands will need to get comfortable selling less volume. Brands will need to adapt to this new world order to survive and not just the so-called ‘legacy’ brands like Nissan, Subaru, etc, but also the new, predominantly Chinese brands. Since 2021 there have been more than a dozen new brands enter the market from China alone and there are more coming, with Forthing, Lepas, iCaur and Jetour all confirmed for Australia.There simply aren’t enough buyers to make more than 70 car brands viable in Australia so get used to hearing announcements like we have recently with Peugeot and Fiat about ‘reevaluating’ or ‘restructuring’ or just plain ‘leaving’ the Australian market for good.Ultimately who survives and who doesn’t will come down to you, the new car customer, as your choice will dictate which brands maintain enough sales to remain viable - and which ones fade away.