Articles by Stephen Ottley

Ready or not, there is a new world order coming to the Australian new car market. The established order at the top of the sales charts is set to change dramatically in the near-future as local buyers continue to embrace the Chinese car brands.Like Japanese and Korean cars that came before, the initial backlash has given way to widespread acceptance and analysing the sales trends from recent years makes it clear that several of the leading Chinese brands are on the verge of cracking the top five in sales in 2026.But, as Newton’s Third Law of Motion tells us, for every action there is an equal or opposite reaction, which means brands that have been firmly ensconced in the top five on the sales charts will drop out.So, who will be the lucky Chinese brand to crack the upper echelon first? And which more established brand is most likely to drop out?For the first question there are two stand-out candidates and two more wild card options. GWM and BYD are the current leaders of the Chinese brands, finishing in seventh and eighth place on the 2025 sales charts. That’s a rise from 10th and 15th in ‘24, as GWM enjoyed a very healthy 23.4 per cent increase in sales last year, while BYD managed a staggering 156.2 per cent increase. But that wasn’t the biggest growing Chinese brand. That title belongs to Chery, which just missed out on a top 10 sales finish with 34,889 sales in 25, which was a massive 176.8 per cent growth on the previous year. And those figures don’t include the 3721 Omoda and Jaecoo sales. The final wild card is MG, which notched 41,298 sales in ‘25 but suffered a 18.4 per cent decline and fell from seventh to 10th on the charts. MG will need a dramatic turnaround but has installed new management specifically to address that problem.GWM and BYD are the clear-priced favourites to upset the order and put more pressure on the likes of Hyundai, Kia and Mazda in ‘26 and beyond. Both are investing in expanded line-ups, while GWM is going a step further and locally-tuning its new models to even further appeal to Australian customers.So who is the brand under the most threat of a sales ladder fall? Hyundai finished in fifth place in ‘25, but that was a clear improvement on ‘24, with the brand enjoying 7.7 per cent sales growth.Kia was next up, but was effectively neutral last year, reporting less than one per cent (0.4%) sales growth. Given this came despite the addition of the highly-anticipated Tasman ute, that’s not a positive result for the brand and puts more pressure on in ‘26.Mazda claimed third place, but suffered a 4.2 per cent sales decline, however, with sales over 90,000 units it can probably be considered fairly safe unless there is a dramatic change in the near-future.For either GWM or BYD to jump into the top five sellers they will need to add more than 25,000 sales. While that’s undoubtedly a huge jump, BYD actually attracted more than 31,000 new customers in 2025 - so it’s not impossible. Especially as it will add four models full-time this year - Atto 1, Atto 2, Sealion 5 and Sealion 8.So, while Toyota is likely to stay comfortably ahead of everyone else, the rest of the established order is up for grabs as Australian customers embrace these new brands and put pressure on the bigger names.

Tesla’s electric vehicle dominance came to an end in 2025, losing its global sales crown to BYD as it experienced its second consecutive year of declining sales.But most worryingly for the American brand, there is no reason to believe 2026 will be any better.For the first time official sales data credited BYD with 2.24 million electric vehicle sales, comfortably ahead of Tesla’s 1.64 million. While a win is a win, it’s the reasons why BYD trumped Tesla that should be of most concern to Elon Musk and his team.BYD out-performed Tesla despite suffering its weakest sales growth in its domestic market, but while enjoying sales growth in Europe and Australia. Notably, while Tesla remained Australia’s biggest seller of electric vehicles, with 28,856 recorded sales, BYD closed in dramatically, notching 25,207 EV sales (for direct comparison, that figure excludes its plug-in hybrid models).What really helps BYD’s cause moving forward is its focus on expanding its offerings and markets globally. Canada recently removed some of its restrictions on Chinese-made cars, which opens up a new growth region, and Europe has eased its hardline stance too.BYD has already confirmed the Atto 1, Atto 2, Sealion 5 and Sealion 8 will all be in Australian showrooms shortly, joining the Atto 3, Dolphin, Seal, Sealion 6 and 7 as well as the Shark 6. And that’s just the models confirmed, with either all-new or already available options likely to be added when the time is right.In contrast, Tesla is betting, once again, on technology. Musk’s current focus (at least in terms of Tesla) is growing both its robotaxi business and developing humanoid robots. Not a new, more-affordable car to compete with the Atto 1, but robots. BYD, on the other hand, is focused on making cars and expanding its portfolio to reach new customers. It doesn’t take a deep automotive industry analysis to assess which plan is the more likely chance of success.While there may well be a need for millions of humanoid robots suddenly over the next decade, the more humble reality is most people will be happy with a new car - even one they have to drive themselves.Which is really the difference between the two companies. BYD is a car manufacturer, Tesla is a technology company that happens to make cars. Musk has always seen Tesla as something different, something unconventional and the hard reality is that will ultimately limit its potential as a car maker. Don’t believe me? Well, just look how much time and resources Toyota, the world’s biggest car company, is investing in humanoid robots…That’s the underlying goal for BYD - beating Toyota. Becoming the biggest EV brand is merely a stepping stone along the way to its end goal. Although, achieving that will be a much harder task.In the short-term, there is seemingly little chance Tesla can recover the lost ground to BYD. The Chinese brand should be able to grow further in 2026, while Tesla faces an uncertain year ahead with no brand-new products coming and seemingly waning interest in what is already available.What Tesla needs in the short-term (and long-term) are more vehicles to sell. The Model 3/Y market is saturated, particularly in Australia, and the much-hyped Cybertruck has been a sales flop. Without new products to drive sales, Tesla will have to get comfortable not being the world leader in electric cars.

Mazda has been on a rapid expansion in recent years, introducing so many new large SUVs it can be hard to keep up with them all.The CX-60, CX-70, CX-80 and CX-90 form a comprehensive line-up of family-sized SUVs, and will be joined in 2026 by the new CX-5. But as we looked at what was missing from some of Australia’s favourite brands, it quickly became obvious what needs attention with Mazda.At the other end of the size spectrum, the pint-sized Mazda2 and CX-3 are still selling in reasonable volume (the CX-3 is actually the most popular model in its segment), but both suffered double-digit sales declines in 2025.Both are also getting old and there is no public plan to replace them anytime soon. While Mazda may very well be working on replacements, if they aren’t it would leave a huge gap in the brand’s line-up.While Mazda was one of the first brands to embrace the concept of ‘semi-premium’ and shift from a model of selling purely on volume and instead focus on profitability, even if it meant fewer sales, giving up this part of the market would be a risky move.There is no question the city car market is in terminal decline, with the Mazda2 only up against the MG3 and Suzuki Swift these days, but there is still enough volume in the compact SUV market to make a CX-3 replacement viable.More importantly, losing either or both of these models would immediately raise the cost of entry to the Mazda brand, which would lock out many first-time new-car buyers. Instead they will go and buy something else, perhaps an MG3, Chery Tiggo 4 Pro or BYD Atto 1 and get integrated into those brands’ systems — just like countless Mazda2 and CX-3 customers have no doubt done in recent years. The challenge for brands like Mazda in the current market situation is it is incredibly difficult to compete with the new wave of Chinese brands on price, especially at the lower end of the market. This means a generation of buyers will get familiar with these brands and could end up staying for years to come if they have a good experience.Mazda should be well aware of that, because that’s the exact tactic that the Japanese brands used in the 1980s and ‘90s, and it’s what the South Korean brands did in the 2000s. Looking at the sales chart it’s dominated by Japanese and Korean brands, but nothing is static in this market so if Mazda abandons the small car/SUV space, it may not hurt in the short-term, but could have big consequences in the long-term.

If there is one word to describe the Australian car industry in 2026, it’s diversity.

Blame Jurassic Park.Ever since Steven Spielberg’s iconic dinosaur movie hit the big screen, everyone has been afraid of Raptors. And not just the dinosaurs, because despite it being more than seven years since Ford launched the Ranger Raptor, nobody has been brave enough to take it on.But there is an obvious brand that should. BYD needs to build its own apex predator — the BYD ‘Great White’ Shark 6.As we continue our summer series looking at the missing pieces from several big name brands, today we’re talking a look at BYD, because the Chinese brand has enjoyed significant growth in recent years and is looking for an even bigger 2026 with the arrival of the Atto 1, Atto 2, Sealion 5 and Sealion 8.There has also been a lot of talk about expanding the Shark 6 line-up, but so far only a ‘more premium’ version and some stripped out variants to appeal to fleet buyers. The brand has, like every other brand that makes utes, deliberately avoided specifically mentioning any direct rival to the Ranger Raptor.With good reason, the Raptor has become a new benchmark in the ute market - not only in terms of performance, both on and off-road, but also the money buyers are willing to spend on a ute.It is both a great concept and a well-executed one, with the second-generation Raptor a leap forward from the already-impressive original.So why should BYD be the first to truly take it on head-to-head? Because it already has the foundations for a proper performance ute. The plug-in hybrid powertrain already makes 321kW of power and 650Nm of torque, which is more than the 291kW/583Nm offered up by the 3.0-litre twin-turbo V6 petrol engine in the Ranger Raptor.Of course, engine performance is only a part of the Raptor’s success, with the real difference maker being the incredibly effective suspension set-up. Ford has decades of off-road desert racing experience to draw on, but BYD clearly has plenty of resources. The fact the company created the Shark 6, and hit the mark so accurately it is already regularly amongst the best-selling utes each month, is proof of that.Make no mistake, I’m not suggesting this would be easy, but it would give BYD a true hero model that would have an impact on the overall brand perception and that will trickle down the entire range, all the way down to the Atto 1.Plus, Great White Shark is such a perfect name it would be a shame to waste it.

You can't fit 10kg of dirt into a 5kg bag. That feels like an appropriate metaphor for the Australian car industry, where seemingly every few weeks a new car brand arrives to stake its claim on a piece of the market.

Subaru has never done things conventionally.Whether it be its rally-inspired heritage turning a small sedan into an iconic performance car or its preference for wagons over SUV, Subaru has carved out its place in the market by being different.Which is why 2026 is shaping up as a crucial year for the brand, as it tries to turn around some difficult, declining years amid increasing challenges from new brands - including one from within its own house.Subaru is distributed by a company called Inchcape, which has added the Chinese Deepal brand to its portfolio. Deepal is nowhere near Subaru in terms of sales, but it is one of nearly a dozen new brands to arrive in Australia in the last year or so, which are all fighting for new car sales against the established brands like Subaru.The Japanese brand suffered a down year in ‘25, with a decline in sales for most of its models, so a turnaround is as necessary as it is wanted.At the same time, Subaru is in a potentially very strong position moving into ‘26. The new-generation Forester launched in mid-’25 and has picked up where the old one left off, and this year the all-new Outback will arrive too.Once the brand’s second best-seller, the Outback has declined in recent years, being the lone wagon in the ‘large SUV’ segment. So Subaru is taking a calculated risk, moving away from its wagon-ness and becoming more SUV-like. Will that be the key to unlocking sales growth or a fatal mistake that will drive away loyal buyers? Only time will tell, but it's a chance Subaru needed to take to push back in an increasingly crowded market.The Outback has always been a steady performer amongst the more conventional large SUVs, so perhaps inching closer in size and style could be just what the brand needs to give its overall sales a boost.Sales of the Impreza continue to fall as small cars become increasingly unpopular in general, but the Impreza-based Crosstrek remains a popular choice.There is definitely potential for Subaru to push its way back into the top 10 in the sales charts, a position it held as recently as 2023. But there is also a danger than more new brands, such as the fast-growing Chery, could leave it on the outside looking in.That makes 2026 a pivotal year for Subaru, with both a fresh Forester and Outback in showrooms, there will be no excuses for anything below expectation for what have been two of Australia’s favourite cars for years.

Hyundai spent 2025 making a series of behind-the-scenes changes to turn around its sales slide of recent years.So in 2026, the brand needs to deliver.While the most notable changes have been the arrival of the new Palisade, Inster and Ioniq 9, the most important changes have been the fresh negotiations between recently-installed new CEO Don Romano and the Hyundai dealers.And that should be the bit that actually impacts you — the potential Hyundai customer.If Romano and his team have been successful, you'll find Hyundai dealers are more motivated to sell you a new car, now that red tape and other hurdles that previous management put in place have been removed.“ Well, we’re bringing out new products, right?,” Romano told CarsGuide in June, 2025. “There’s gonna be a few more… But the real goal that I have is to regain the confidence of our dealers and make sure that Hyundai becomes top of mind. This was a strategy we put together in Canada, when Canada had the same exact scenario where our sales had declined we had lost the confidence of the dealer body. And I think that’s first and foremost, that dealers right now have 70 different brands out there that they’re juggling. And where does Hyundai stand in that line-up, making that one of their top priorities? That’s exactly like my goal has always been to look at who’s number one and see how they interact with their dealer body as one team, and that’s absolutely my goal is to work closer with the dealers than before.”The timing couldn't be better, as Hyundai has been headed in the wrong direction on the sales charts for the past few years. Hyundai was the third biggest brand in Australia in 2021, but has been going in reverse since then, dropping to sixth in 2024. While there was some progress in 2025, climbing back to fifth place, the reality is Hyundai’s overall sales numbers have been relatively flat for the past several years and that suggests change is needed.The brand has definitely focused on pushing more upmarket in recent years, launching the Palisade in a single, high-grade Calligraphy trim as well as the six-figure Ioniq 9, but while that can be profitable the brand still needs volume to grow.That’s why there are some crucial new models coming this year, starting with the Elexio, its first Chinese-built electric vehicle. While Hyundai has been one of the most proactive ‘legacy’ brands when it comes to EVs — offering the Inster, Kona, Ioniq 5, Ioinq 6 and Ioniq 9 — they make up less than three per cent of the brand’s total sales.And Romano wasn’t afraid to admit it, when he spoke to us last August, saying: “ We do a terrible job with our EVs. On the record. We are not doing the job we should be.”He added: “Our market share of electric vehicles is extremely low relative to our market share of total vehicles, and the only explanation for that is that we haven’t put enough focus on it because I can see other companies that are selling electric cars that are doing a much better job with their EVs than they do with their ICE (internal combustion vehicles). We’re the opposite.”The Elexio won’t be the brand’s cheapest EV, but it has the potential to be the best-value, as the Kia EV5 twin-under-the-skin should be able to take advantage of the same elements that have allowed brands like MG, BYD and Geely to offer cheaper, more popular EV models.Of course, while EVs attract plenty of attention, the core volume models for Hyundai have traditionally been its small and mid-size SUVs as well as its hatchbacks. The i30 hatch is on its last legs, though.So there will be a need to transition buyers into other options, such as the Venue and Kona, which both enjoyed growth in ‘25.The Tucson remains a solid performer and the Santa Fe is picking up steam, but Hyundai will likely need more than just the addition of the Palisade XRT Pro to get its biggest SUV selling in bigger numbers again.Whether these elements are enough to get Hyundai to grow its sales and improve its position on the charts by the end of 2026 remains to be seen, but the pressure will be on after so much change in 2025.

Ford Australia has a popularity problem. By that I mean, the Ranger is so popular it is Australia’s best-selling new vehicle any given month, but at a time when the government is looking to crack down on emissions. The New Vehicle Efficiency Standards (NVES) have been designed to motivate both car makers and customers alike to choose a new vehicle with lower emissions.This is part of the reason why Ford has invested so much time and effort into adding the Ranger plug-in hybrid to its range. But, unfortunately for Ford Australia, buyers so far seem pretty happy to stick with good old fashioned turbo-diesel power. So, as we look at the missing pieces across several of Australia’s leading car brands, there is a very obvious gap in the Ford line-up - a small or mid-size SUV powered by either a plug-in hybrid or all-electric powertrain to help offset all those diesel Ranger emissions under NVES.Under the Federal Government’s policy it will penalise car makers for not getting their vehicles below a mandated CO2 emissions target. The good news is a car maker can effectively offset those vehicles over the limit by claiming ‘credits’ for its vehicles that are below the threshold. Obviously electric cars are rated with zero CO2 emissions, so enjoy the most credits.The problem for Ford is that its biggest selling models are the diesel-powered Ranger and Everest and the V8-powered Mustang. That trio accounts for more than 90 per cent of Ford Australia’s total volume. The all-electric Mustang Mach-E is less than one per cent of the company’s local sales.So, what Ford would likely love is for a more popular SUV, that could help both with NVES but also grow sales. Ford simply gave up on the SUV market, dropping the Escape, despite it being the biggest single segment of the market. It also dropped the Puma and Endura, leaving the Everest to fight on alone.It’s believed Ford will add the Chinese-built Bronco sometime in the not-too-distant future, and the range-extender mid-size SUV could be just what the brand needs at this moment in time. It’s powered by a 110kW 1.5-litre turbo petrol engine and electric motor, which is powered by a BYD battery to provide over 200km of range.What’s more, it’s a Bronco. The Escape was a perfectly fine mid-size SUV, but it was very easy to overlook in a crowded and highly competitive market, which is not something you can say about the Bronco.This is arguably Ford’s best chance of reestablishing itself into the mid-size SUV market. Hopefully being built in China allows it to be price competitive and Ford Australia can stop being so reliant on the Ranger for its success.

We’ve already looked at the most important cars coming in 2026, but what about the ones that may not be big sellers but will generate a lot of excitement?Well, there’s plenty of those to choose from (because there’s no shortage of new models to choose from in the jam-packed Australian new car market anyway), but we’ve narrowed it down to the five most notable examples. These may not be the most popular newcomers, but they are the new offerings that make the biggest statement about the brand’s intent. Toyota RAV4 PHEVToyota was adamant for over a decade that its conventional hybrid system was all it needed to keep buyers happy. But with plug-in hybrid sales more than doubling in 2025 it has finally decided that the time is right to join the party.The RAV4 PHEV won’t land until later in the year, months after the rest of the range goes on sale, but it will bring with it a new flagship GR Sport variant. This will be powered by a dual-motor all-wheel drive plug-in hybrid powertrain that will make 227kW and be capable of driving up to 100km on electric power alone.There will also be a single-motor, front-wheel drive option, on the more affordable mid-spec XSE trim line, which should ensure the PHEV has appeal to a reasonable amount of the market.The biggest challenge for Toyota will be ensuring the RAV4 PHEV is price-competitive against its Chinese rivals, such as the BYD Sealion 6 (from $42,990), GWM Haval H6 (from $44,990) and MG HS (from $49,690).Mazda 6e Will it be second time’s a charm for Mazda with electric cars? And, perhaps even more curiously, is there still a market for the sedan?Local management has made no secret that its first electric offering, the MX-30, was a niche player that had limited appeal at its size and price. But that’s not the case for the 6e, which is a very different proposition on every level and therefore holds great potential - for better or worse - for the brand.For starters, the 6e is the product of Mazda’s partnership with Chinese carmaker Changan, makers of Deepal. That has allowed Mazda to confirm a starting price of “less than $55,000” for the 6e, which is pretty competitive for a mid-size sedan, regardless of powertrain. However, both electric cars and mid-size sedans are still niche propositions, so the combination of both makes for a significant challenge for Mazda to overcome. If the price and specification levels are appealing, perhaps the Mazda badge can help lure buyers away from a Tesla Model 3 and BYD Seal, but even if it does that successfully the 6e will likely be a modest seller.But what makes it so exciting is the potential it has to define Mazda’s future. If it does well, Mazda will likely continue to explore more EV options. But if it doesn’t, the brand will need to pivot and focus on its PHEV powertrains for the foreseeable future.Hyundai Palisade XRT ProHaving enjoyed huge success with its sporty ‘N’ brand, Hyundai is trying to expand its portfolio into the off-road space with ‘XRT’. We’ve already seen accessories packs for the Santa Fe, but in 2026 the brand will take the next step and offer the Palisade XRT Pro as a specific trim grade.While the Santa Fe XRT package was style focused, the Palisade XRT Pro takes everything a step further. There’s a unique grille and lower bumper that incorporates twin, chassis-mounted tow hooks, as well as new side skirts and rear bumper, all of which improves its approach, breakover and departure angles.There is a new XRT Pro-exclusive rear electronic limited-slip differential for better off-road capability as well as downhill brake control and new terrain modes for mud, sand and snow, plus 18-inch alloy wheels with all-terrain tyres. But Hyundai has stopped short of modifying the suspension, so it is unlikely to convince true off-roaders to make the switch.But it shows Hyundai is serious about making XRT Pro another element of its arsenal and we’ve seen there is scope for more XRT and XRT Pro models in the future, assuming the Palisade makes an impact.Denza B5 and B8 Perhaps the biggest problem Hyundai faces competing with the LandCruiser and Everest is actually these two new arrivals. Denza, a spin-off from BYD, is also aiming to become an alternative to the current large SUV kings.The Prado-sized B5 and LandCruiser rivaling B8 are both powered by potent plug-in hybrid powertrains while still being capable of towing up to 3000kg and 3500kg, respectively.As evidenced by the success of the BYD Shark 6, Australians are open-minded about plug-in hybrid utes, so it makes sense for Denza to see if the same is true for the rugged SUV market.With the entire range all priced below $100,000, and the B5 kicking off from a highly-competitive $74,990, Denza has positioned itself well to try and attract Aussie adventures to its new offerings.Nissan PatrolIt’s been a long, long time coming but the Patrol is inching closer to Australia. It’s still not 100 per cent locked in for a 2026 showroom arrival, but it’s still the most exciting new model for Nissan in a long time.After a difficult 2025 thanks to the company's financial troubles, Nissan Australia could do with a positive boost this year. The new Patrol drops the old V8 and replaces it with a twin-turbo V6 that makes even more performance, a very healthy 317kW/700Nm.It may not be Nissan’s biggest seller, but the new Patrol will be a big and, more importantly, positive addition to the line-up which makes it very exciting.