Will all car brands survive 2026? | Opinion

You can't fit 10kg of dirt into a 5kg bag.

That feels like an appropriate metaphor for the Australian car industry, where seemingly every few weeks a new car brand arrives to stake its claim on a piece of the market.

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Brands that either launched or relaunched in Australia in the past 12-18 months include Cadillac, Deepal, Foton, Geely, GMC, GAC, JAC, Jaecoo, Leapmotor, Omoda, XPeng and Zeekr - and there are more coming in 2026, including Denza and Wey.

Given Australians only buy between 1.1 and 1.2 million cars each year pretty consistently, it raises serious questions about not only the viability of all these new brands, but also the potential for more-established brands that may be struggling. 

For starters, these new brands have to establish a cohesive argument for customers to choose them. But with only just over one million cars sold each year, there will inevitably be buyers drawn away from the establishment, leaving question marks over the long-term viability of many of those.

Of the brands listed above not all even report their sales, so we have no idea how successful (or otherwise) they are in this market. But of those who do report sales, Deepal, Foton and Leapmotor will all likely record less than 1000 sales in ‘25.

Obviously any brand needs time to establish itself, but unless you’re a brand like Ferrari or Lamborghini, you cannot sustain yourself on triple-digit sales each year, so there is little time for these brands to waste.

There are possible success stories, like Omoda-Jaecoo, which is an ambitious spin-off from Chery (because why launch one new brand when you can launch three). It sold around 3500 cars in ‘25 and has laid the foundation for a potential future, but will need continued growth or risk being overtaken by one of its numerous similar rivals.

Even a brand like Leapmotor, with the backing of Stellantis, has no guarantee of long-term viability. Having a good vehicle is only one element of succeeding, you need to sell it and you need to ensure owners have a good experience and spread positive word about what are largely unknown brands. If you don’t, it doesn’t matter how good the car is.

Put simply, you can have a great product at a great price, but if customers don’t show up and buy it, then that business will fail.

And that will be the reality — not everyone of the brands that will start 2026 will be here a few years from now. That may sound dramatic, but if a brand as giant as Holden can falter and fail, then no-one (except maybe Toyota) can consider themselves safe.

So, if these new brands want to secure their futures, and the under-fire establishment wanting to reassert dominance, then 2026 is the time to get moving.