Opinion

Why tough new emissions laws face a reckoning the world over.

The rapid and seemingly unstoppable expansion of Chinese carmakers is something to behold.But is it too far-fetched to think all cars will be Chinese within the next 20 years? Or is it naive not to see it as a strong possibility?For a long time I’ve thought the emergence of new Chinese cars in Australia and globally was the natural progression of the car industry. New brands morph from alternative fledgling brands to mature and established ones. We saw this with Japanese brands such as Toyota, Mazda, Mitsubishi and Nissan which gained popularity in the 1960s and ’70s before becoming established go-to brands in the 1980s and ’90s as they fought homegrown heroes Ford and Holden for space in Australia's driveways. And it stayed that way until the first decade of the 2000s ticked over.Holden and Ford’s ranges and sales shrank giving way to the Koreans who filled the gap with Hyundai and Kia which have climbed high into the top 10 thanks to an excellent range of SUVs and EVs.They’re now marching towards the only brands that stand in their way - Mitsubishi, Ford, Mazda and Toyota - which, by the way, have about three EVs between them.And given another five years Kia and Hyundai may have been able to topple Toyota from number one. But it might be too late for that. The presence of a large and fast-growing force is creating major uncertainty for the established brands in the Australian market - the rise and rise of Chinese brands. At the end of 2024 there were 12 Chinese brands operating in Australia and this year we’re expecting at least another seven to arrive. To put that in perspective we currently have a total of 50 car brands in Australia and nine are Japanese. By the end of 2025 the Chinese tally could easily be 20 brands or 30 per cent of Australia's brand make up.Several Chinese brands have been in Australia for years and have already done the hard yards. It took MG a couple of attempts to find a foothold but it was the seventh best-selling brand in 2024, while GWM came in at 10th. LDV is further down but still sold more than 16,000 vehicles here last year.The newer Chinese arrivals show huge promise with most of them offering affordable electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids when the established brands have only a handful among them, usually at higher prices.BYD, Zeekr, Leapmotor, Geely, Deepal, XPeng, Smart, JAC, Aion, Chery and Jaecoo will spend 2025 launching a multitude of new vehicles here. BYD will be one to watch having sold more cars here last year than Mercedes-Benz and it will likely enter the top 10 best sellers next year. Geely, which is the ‘Volkswagen of China’ in terms of its size and how many brands it owns, is another to watch.Chinese car manufacturers' speed of production, the development of new platforms and technology, the low cost of batteries, availability of electronics and the breakthroughs being made in charging systems, plus the sheer amount of money and Chinese government support behind them make competition almost impossible for many other brands.It’s almost certain that some established brands will bow out of Australia, unable to compete with Chinese brands. It’s also feasible that within the next decade more than half the Australian market could be made up of Chinese brands. And surely some Chinese brands won’t be able to cut it here and leave, too.Who could survive? Well, time has shown that even the mighty like Holden have fallen if they don’t make the cars people want to buy. The sheer brute force of Chinese brands being able to offer what people want quickly and at a low price, and at an always improving tech level could be too difficult for many other brands to fight off.In an extreme scenario this could lead to a 100 per cent Chinese brand market within 15 years. Sounds far fetched? Well they’re a third of the way there already.  

Five years ago Holden executives were secretly hatching a plan to save the brand by teaming up with the Chinese car maker behind MG and LDV. Now looking back in 2025 as Chinese brands win over Aussie hearts, the move would have been one of pure genius that would have seen Holden not just survive but maybe even thrive.The deal was close and it could have worked incredibly well, given what we know now. The plan would see Holden and Chinese auto giant SAIC enter an agreement allowing MG cars and LDV utes to be rebadged as Holdens.This was all happening in 2020 - three years after Holden’s parent company General Motors had shut down local manufacturing. The Aussie-built Commodore was replaced with an imported Opel Insignia wearing a Holden badge. The move left Holden in a horrendous situation where it was having to scrape around at the bottom of the auto barrel looking for right-hand-drive vehicles within General Motors global portfolio - the Cruze, for example, was a Daewoo Lacetti Premiere which garnered a reputation for mechanical problems.The deal with SAIC was far more promising. GM already had a joint-venture with SAIC in China, so there was already technology sharing between the companies. But just as Holden’s executives were about to act General Motors announced Holden would end operations at the end of 2021.Holden’s interim chairman and managing director Kristian Aquilina faced a parliamentary inquiry in 2020 into the closure where he was grilled by Senator James McGrath. Reading the minutes of the inquiry reveal Senator McGrath asking if Holden would be sold to a Chinese owner. “I just want to get reassurance from you in relation to the Holden brand. MG, a famous British automobile company, is now owned by a Shanghai-based state-owned company in China. Can you give us an assurance that General Motors won't sell off the Holden brand to, for example, a state-owned company in China, or indeed any other company? Can you give us that assurance?” asked Senator McGrathAquilina's response was firm: “I'm not going to address any hypotheticals, but I want to assure you of this: Holden remains within our ownership, within General Motors ownership.”The exchange showed what appears to be a nervous and hostile attitude toward the prospect of the Australian brand being owned by another carmaker.But a Chinese owner might have helped Holden more than the American one - which left it with nothing. Looking at how dramatically the world’s car landscape has changed with Chinese manufacturers moving at an almost impossible speed both in the development of battery technology and production of high quality, stylish cars makes you think that a Holden owned by Chinese owners may have been a much better prospect.The suggestion also by the Senator that MG was somehow worse off under SAIC ownership is questionable now. MG produced 700,000 vehicles in 2024 and 50,000 of them were sold in Australia, making it the seventh most bought car brand here. MG has never been more successful, never sold more cars AND never been driven by more people.A Holden under SAIC ownership or close joint venture would have probably seen the brand offered in a range of petrol, diesel, hybrid and electric vehicles at prices that would have been affordable.Sure, SUVs would have absolutely formed the backbone of a 2025 Holden model line-up, but the MG3 could have been given a Barina badge and there would have even been room for a halo car in the same way MG has the Cyberster - an electric Monaro maybe? Ok, maybe not that far. But a electric Caprice luxury Car? That could work.Plus, Holden 4x4 utes could have been a thing again. SAIC could have drawn on the same ladder-frame architecture that underpins the LDV T60 ute or the eT60 ute, which might have helped Holden beat old rival Ford to the electric ute post.Of course, there’s the electric Holdens that could have been had the brand been sold to SAIC. The excellent MG4 would have been a perfect electric Holden Cruze - possibly one of the best Holdens ever in its new EV form.Then there’s all the Holden jobs which could have been saved. Sure, maybe not the production line folks, but the design teams and the engineers could have continued on in some form, as is the case with MG's design studio in London.Even today with a new version of the Holden Commodore exists in China as the Buick Regal GS. It's an Opel Insignia-based ZB Commodore and despite the platform being owned by Stellantis now, thanks to a loophole the car can be sold as a Buick by SAIC-GM in China. Yes, even the Commodore could have easily lived on here in Australia, even if it was made in China.Not to mention the other Chevrolet models the brand could have drawn from like the next-generation Equinox which is currently assembled in China.Of course none of this happened. General Motors wanted to keep rights to the Holden brand for at least 10 years as it said it wanted to provide service and support to owners for at least a decade.Perhaps in five years time General Motors will sell the Holden brand to SAIC, or Geely or BYD. Would people really think that's a bad idea now? Will anybody even remember Holden then? Then again, it did work for MG...

Toyota has at last sped up its EV rollout, confirming this week that it will have six new electric vehicles on sale by next year, including a battery-powered ute.

I tried it lengthways, sideways and even on the diagonal, but despite my best efforts the box holding my new desk wouldn’t fit in the back of the Mitsubishi Triton.And then it struck me — modern utes are a bit useless.Alright, so ‘useless’ may be too strong a word, but the idea of a dual-cab ute and the reality of a dual-cab ute are incredibly different when it comes to practicality. Dual-cab utes are incredibly popular these days and are driven as much by families as they are by working tradies.Now, if you’re a tradie, I’m sure they’re a very practical choice and make working life easy, in the way you can throw your tools in the tray and blaze off to the next job. But even for tradies who need to carry anything longer than your typical desk, the tray size in a modern dual-cab is problematic.Modern dual-cab utes effectively have a square tray, not perfectly square but pretty close, which makes it convenient for smaller and shorter items but challenging when it comes to longer packages. For example, the Toyota HiLux tray is actually wider than it is long, measuring 1645mm wide but only 1570mm long. The Triton I was driving when I had my epiphany had a tray that measures 1520mm long and 1470mm wide. As for the most popular ute, the Ford Ranger, it has various sizes of tray but measures 1464mm long and 1520mm wide in the popular dual-cabs.At this point I’ll concede that a 1500mm desk is a long item and not many vehicles would accommodate such a lengthy box… except I could squeeze it into a large SUV, with the seats folded down. Or in a van. Which brings me to the most painful part of my realisation that utes aren’t as practical as they first appear - I have to concede my older brother is right about vans.You see, my brother spent over 20 years in the USA and despite many years of happiness he eventually fell in with the wrong crowd — minivan drivers. He had a US-spec Honda Odyssey and loved it so much that when he returned to Australia he found the closest possible replacement — a Kia Carnival.Being the helpful brother that I am, when he needed to move house, I offered to borrow a ute (for strictly review-related purposes, obviously) and take some of the bigger loads — you know, like fridges, couches, desks, those sorts of things. Except, it quickly emerged that the tray in the ute was basically useless (sorry, there’s that word again) when it came to shifting bigger items, the tray was far too short. Even with the tailgate down and the load secured safely it would have been protruding too far behind the ute to be safe to drive.But you know what could fit all the biggest items? My brother’s van. It was a major blow to the idea that the ute is Australia’s great invention and far superior to the daggy van.The silver lining for the ute owners, who are no doubt seething at my anti-ute attitude (even though I don’t hate them, I just don’t think they’re as practical as people think), is you’re officially off the hook to help your friends move. Because now you can simply tell them that your ute’s tray is too small and they should ask their friend with the people-mover instead. You’re welcome…

The New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) applies to new cars sold in the Australian market and is aimed at keeping Australia on track to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, so said the Federal Government.NVES rules came into effect on January 1 this year but the accumulation of units and penalties won’t start until July 1 this year.Carmarkers are already rethinking their line-ups in order to meet the NVES guidelines, with Ford ditching some of its 4x2 variants of the Everest and Isuzu rumoured to be deleting some 4x2 variants from its MU-X range.The upcoming Kia Tasman will have a 2.2-litre four-cylinder turbo-diesel engine and the likelihood Isuzu and Mazda will replace any of their 3.0-litre ute offerings with a smaller 2.2-litre unit to save on emissions and avoid any NVES-related strife, are we about to say “hoo-roo” to V6 utes?Read on.They may not elicit the same heart-thumping excitement as a V6 or V8, smaller engines have for a long time now proven their worth in utes. They’re refined, fuel efficient, and produce more than adequate amounts of power and torque to be able to haul a load, tow a caravan, horse float or power boat, and go off-road.Throw in impressive high- and low-range gearing, seamless driver-assist tech, a well-calibrated traction control system, and diff locks, and utes with small engines onboard, rather than being outgunned by V6s, are setting the gold standard for effectiveness in tough environments and being able to meet strict new emissions laws.Utes with smaller engines have been around for donkey’s years, but the new-ish wave of them – including the Isuzu D-Max’s 2.2-litre four-cylinder turbo-diesel (120kW/400Nm) and the Toyota HiLux’s 2.8-litre four-cylinder turbo-diesel (150kW/500Nm) with mild-hybrid technology – look poised to ensure V6 utes are consigned to the history books.The new Isuzu engine is 10kW/50Nm better then the brand’s 1.9-litre engine (110kW/350Nm) but 20kW/50Nm down on the 3.0-litre unit it is set to replace – no big deal though because those lesser power and torque aren’t deal-breakers for most. Besides, its 120kW/400Nm outputs match those of the GWM Ute (120kW/400Nm) and put it right in the mix with the Jac T9 (120kW/410Nm) and KGM Ssangyong Musso (133kW/400-420Nm).The HiLux’s 2.8-litre set-up doesn’t seem to have hampered its appeal with fans of Australian utes, certainly not in terms of sales.What’s more, the much-loved LandCruiser 79 Series benefits from its 2.8L four-cylinder turbo-diesel engine (150kW/500Nm), which produces plenty of low-down torque. Add in a 44:1 crawl ratio and, depending on the spec, front and rear diff locks, and this 79 is near-unstoppable off-road.Don’t forget the even newer wave of utes either.Beyond its polarising looks, the Kia Tasman already has tongues a-wagging – not the least because of its 2.2-litre four-cylinder turbo-diesel engine (154kW and 441Nm), that’s equivalent to the Ford Ranger’s 2.0-litre bi-turbo (154kW/500Nm) in terms of power but 59Nm of torque less.Word is the Tasman will be able to tow the ute industry standard of 3500kg (braked) and will likely have a payload of 1000kg or over, depending on the variant. So, nothing to sniff at there.The Tasman is due to be launched in Australia later this year and is tipped to be, if not a game-changer, a ute that will help move the crowd forward into a hopefully less-polluted future.And how about hybrids?The BYD Shark 6 plug-in hybrid ute – a first for Australia – has a 1.5-litre four-cylinder turbo petrol engine with dual electric motors: a 170kW/310Nm front motor and a 150kW/340Nm rear motor (total: 320kW/650Nm).This BYD ute has a claimed driving range of 100km (electric only), and about 850km (hybrid).The Shark has a listed payload of 850kg and braked towing capacity of 2500kg. It doesn’t have the 1000kg payload or 3500kg market-standard towing capacity of non-hybrid utes, but it can still take on a weighty load and clock up big distances before it needs to be refuelled/recharged.In terms of robustness over time, it’s largely unproven as yet – because it hasn’t been on the market long enough for anyone to make an informed judgement. On paper at least, the Shark 6 has plenty of potential to give the ute realm a healthy nudge into the future as part of a new wave of utes equipped with smaller engines, hybrid systems and new technologies aimed at improving performance and efficiencies and reducing emissions.

It’s a chilly overcast day on the outskirts of Hangzhou and there’s a hum in the air. The ominous tone is generated by no less than 40 fast electric car chargers, which sprout from an otherwise empty field on the side of a freeway.This is the Shaoxing Service Area, a ‘Rest Stop’ on the freeway between two major Chinese east coast cities. It features three rows of fast chargers where in Australia you’d be lucky to find one, a two-storey shopping centre to keep you entertained, and one of Nio’s even more futuristic battery swapping stations hidden away at the back.If you wanted a look into the year 2030, when we’re all meant to be driving zero emissions vehicles, this is it. China is already living in what many consider to be an unattainable existence, where everyone has a free bay to charge and there’s plenty of things to do while you wait, whether it's an hour or just 15 minutes.To give you an idea of the scale of the problem Australia faces though, China already has over 1.8 million public DC chargers, whereas Australia only just cracked the 1000 mark by June of 2024. At one point last year, China built more AC and DC public charging than has ever been built in the USA in just a 73 day period.A better way to look at it is the ratio of chargers to the amount of electric vehicles currently on the road. Even with its astronomical EV sales compared to the rest of the world, China has kept pace with its infrastructure. It has roughly seven electric cars per public charging location.In Australia it is closer to 150 cars per charger, according to the EV Council's data.So if you’re an EV owner wondering why it’s so hard to find a station, or you’re a combustion car buyer wondering where all the chargers are, your answer is there’s nowhere near enough of them yet.The Shaoxing Rest Area, with its 40 plus chargers, isn’t even one of the biggest ones in China. The Xiawuji Battery Charging station on the outskirts of Beijing features no less than 70 fast charging bays offering similar facilities.Shell has opened what appears to be the largest fast charging facility in the world in Shenzhen, sporting an absurd 258 public DC fast chargers all in one location.Shell said the facility services over 3300 EVs a day and has rooftop solar capable of generating up to 300,000kWh of electricity a year to help at least subsidise what can only be an eye-watering energy cost.On the topic of facilities, the Shaoxing location I saw has a two storey shopping mall, mainly occupied by a range of dining outlets, whether it’s a local hotpot shop or a Starbucks. It also had enormous toilet facilities, complete with showers. There’s plenty of indoor and outdoor seating. Interestingly the site still offered a Sinopec refuelling facility for non-EVS, but it consisted of a handful of bowsers taking up about a third of the space of the EV charging bays.It’s the utopia many EV owners are currently looking for, particularly on the great heavily-travelled expanses on Australia’s east coast, yet this little sample of the 2030 future doesn’t come without its own warnings of building up too quickly.According to multiple sources, the use rate of some of these larger sites are surprisingly low, showing what some are calling a “high seasonality” with strong demand in summer travel periods followed by steep declines in demand for charging in winter. It’s reflected at the Shaoxing site. I was there in December on a chilly winter's day and only a handful of the 40 sites were in use. Reuters has reported on a heavily fractured charging market, with the five biggest charging vendors making up only 65.2 per cent market share as of 2023. It reported estimates from Rystad energy, which indicate the pylons of even the largest player are earning less than US$10 a day.Australian charge providers who are yet to develop such large sites can learn from China before they fall into the same traps.For example, Australia’s EV charging networks started out with rapid fragmentation between brands, meaning a similar frustrating experience requiring an array of phone apps to activate and pay for them. Established networks have now become more dominant, with most public DC sites run by either Chargefox or Evie Networks, and most AC slow chargers now being able to be paid for via a single Exploren app.How far are we away from Chinese-style ‘Rest Stops’ as a harbinger for the 2030 future? Certainly a way off yet, but our first glimpse of it might come via Ampol’s redevelopment of the M1 Northbound site in Wyong, NSW, which has been approved by the NSW government for funding for ten DC charging bays. It won’t be the largest site in Australia, with that title already held by the Tesla charging station in Albury. It is hidden away in a public multi-story carpark featuring 16 pylons, but it most resembles a ‘rest-stop’ style location by the side of a highly-trafficked intercity route.While it comes with its own set of warnings to heed then, spots like the Shaoxing rest stop should come as proof that a 2030 future where the majority of us are driving electric cars is not only possible, it’s nothing to be afraid of after all.

Let’s not kid ourselves, the ute segment isn’t by any stretch of the imagination the pinnacle of automotive design.

I'm calling it early – the Tesla Model Y's time as Australia's best-selling electric vehicle is coming to an end. And no, I don't think the refreshed Juniper is going to save it.

Honda and Nissan simply should not merge. When it was announced that the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed last December “for consideration of a business integration between the two companies” was terminated on February 13, many people would have breathed a sigh of relief.