Will Webber win?

It was easy question to answer, because the answer is a resounding yes. What's much tougher to answer is 'Will he win?', because victory in Formula One relies as much on luck as any talent or preparation.

Webber has not had much luck at Albert Park since his first-up fifth with the lowly-rated Minardi team in 2002, although he admits he tried too hard with the speedy Red Bull racer last year and killed his chances of a home win. He has often been belted by a silly mechanical problem, despite obvious speed in everything from a Jaguar through Williams days and on to the reds.

But there are still some buts. No-one knows how fast Ferrari will go when testing becomes racing, and Fernando Alonso gets a sniff of success with the famous Italian team. Unproven Pirelli tyres could turn the race into a roll-the-dice gamble on wear, speed and strategy.

And then there is Sebastian Vettel.

Webber beat the mercurial young German many times last year, and led the world championship standings for longer than any of the contenders, but Vettel snatched the crown in the final race at Abu Dhabi with the sort of inspired performance that has him rated alongside Michael Schumacher for skill and commitment.

Webber says he has hit the re-set button for 2011 and he has an incredible ability to regroup and re-focus whenever he faces a new challenge. He was expected to be buried by Vettel but stepped up to the German's level last year in a brilliant performance.

No-one knows how qualifying will run this year, unlike last year when Webber had to beat Vettel on Saturday to have a chance in the races on Sunday. And the Pirelli situation is genuinely a massive unknown. So Webber can win the Australian Grand Prix, without any doubt.

Will he? I think so.