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At a glance, last month's sales numbers paint a familiar picture of Australia's dual-cab market. The Toyota HiLux was the country's best-selling vehicle in July, with the Ford Ranger the nation's second best-selling ute.
But scratch ever so slightly below the surface and cracks begin to appear. Namely that Toyota's flagship workhorse has sold 10 per cent fewer vehicles this year than last, with only the fact the Ranger is faring worse protecting the Japanese brand's segment lead.
In total, 26,245 people have purchased a 4x4 HiLux in 2025, compared to 29,105 people at the same point in 2024. It's even harder reading for the 4x4 Ranger, with 30,367 sales compared to 35,230 at the same point last year.
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Part of it we know for fact, while part we have to guess.
The fact? The Chinese brands are making an impact. So far this year, and in 4x4 guise, 11,657 BYD Shark 6's have found homes. Another 1321 examples of the GWM Cannon Alpha have been sold. And 1009 JAC T9s have been delivered. That's a lot of people who might have otherwise steered towards a HiLux.
The guess? Toyota has dragged its heels on a new model for some time (and even the incoming one doesn't actually look all that new, at least from what we can see so far) and so people looking for fresh and exciting metal are shopping elsewhere.
Still, that wait is almost over, with camouflaged examples of the new HiLux now spied testing in Thailand, and a local launch finally looming.
So far, we expect the HiLux to deliver a carry-over platform and powertrain, but a new-look interior with fresh tech, a Ford Ranger-aping tub step, and revised exterior with a fresh front end, including a new LED light treatment
A series of what appear to be design sketches show a screen-heavy cabin, which borrows from the gear selector from the Toyota LandCruiser Prado, as well as a tub with an integrated step, much like the Ranger.
We also expect the 2.8-litre diesel (with 48v system) to reappear, though plug-in hybrid and even hydrogen-fuelled options are reportedly on the horizon.
It's more likely those options will appear some way down the track. In fact, CarsGuide has previously reported on a potential two-model HiLux strategy, where this 'new' model is joined by a genuinely all-new ute primed for electrification.
Still, the question remains, will Toyota have done enough to spark fresh interest in its workhorse? Only time will tell.
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