Can BYD really beat Toyota?
By Dom Tripolone · 09 Jul 2026
We are halfway through the year, and what a half it has been for the Australian new-car market.The biggest story of the year has been the superstar rise of BYD, and the fall of a few Japanese stars.Electric car and plug-in hybrid sales have surged on the back of sky-high petrol prices and the growth of affordable options.And Australians continue to fall out of love with utes.So what’s in store for the rest of the year? These are our predictions.BYD had a monster June selling 18,881 vehicles, but despite that monster effort it was still 243 sales behind Toyota. That epic result for BYD was fuelled by the arrival of its own car carriers packed to the gills with BYDs and Denzas.It coincided with Toyota struggling to get production of the RAV4 and HiLux up to steam.Toyota has said it has now secured an additional 20,000 vehicles to arrive in the second half of this year, with the majority being RAV4s and HiLuxes.It is now predicting it will sell 230,000 vehicles for the full year. That means it will sell 22,500 vehicles every month for the rest of 2026.That kind of volume puts BYD’s challenge to bed … for this year at least.Toyota's former Head of Sales and Marketing Sean Hanley called it a few years ago, but the data now backs it up — ute sales have peaked.Sales of the volume - and profit making - four-wheel-drive utes are down 11 per cent for the year. And crucially they were down 14 per cent in June, which is typically one of the strongest months for ute sales as the End of Financial Year wraps up.This is despite a range of new models dropping in the past 12 months, including an updated Toyota HiLux, Kia Tasman, MG U9 and a next-generation Nissan Navara, among others. None have lit the sales charts on fire.Not even BYD’s plug-in hybrid Shark 6 can save the segment, with its sales down about nine per cent this year.That’s bad news for carmakers planning a ute assault in the coming months.Chery’s ballyhooed diesel hybrid Stockman is headed our way this year and could replicate the Shark 6’s success.Hyundai is already keeping its options open. Hyundai Australia CEO Don Romano told CarsGuide recently there were lots of variables that could affect the timing of the new ute."It's definitely going to happen. The timing is really the issue, because if it's built in the US... and if the FX (foreign exchange rate) is favourable, it would be sooner. But if it's not, we don't need another ute that's priced too high," said Romano."I'd say we're still looking at between now and 2030. There's a timeframe, but even that isn't a guarantee and it would be subject to us saying 'that's the right ute for Australia', and I haven't got to that point yet that anything we're doing at this stage is a guaranteed right vehicle for Australia."It appears a ute is no longer the guaranteed success it once was.The rise of BYD, Chery, GWM and MG has forced a few long-time big sellers to the back of the pack.It is hard to see Subaru, Nissan and Mitsubishi turning it around. All have had their lunch cut by cheaper, and flashier, Chinese alternatives.All have few electric or plug-in hybrid options, which means they will likely be slugged with fines under the federal government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES).This will likely lead to higher car prices, which will further erode their position against cut-price Chinese brands with a high level of electrification across the range.Even the mighty Mazda isn’t immune after a tough June, and Aussies will have to wait another 18 months at least to get their hands on a hybrid version of the CX-5, its most popular model.Mazda does have a range of EVs coming from its Chinese partner Changan.Nissan will follow a similar path with EVs and plug-in hybrids from its Chinese partner, Dongfeng, after denying Aussies the new Leaf and Juke EVs.Mitsubishi has paired up with Taiwanese brand Foxconn, which is a sub-division of the company that produces iPhones, to make its electric cars, with little to no plans to make EVs themselves.Subaru has a bunch of EVs co-developed with Toyota, but has walked back plans to make some of its own.EV sales boomed in the past three months off the back of high fuel prices caused by the Iran war.Most carmakers are claiming inquiries have returned to normal after a bumper few months.It is still unlikely that we will see a return to sub-10 per cent market share for EVs as more and more options become available across all price pointsGeely is about to launch its EX2, which is the most popular EV in China, and more brands are focusing on the volume-selling segments as the cost of making EVs drops.So we won’t see the massive surge from the past month, but there will be real sustainable growth in the next six months.