Opinion

Christmas is a fading memory, the New Year’s hangovers have cleared and we’re still getting used to writing ‘2025’ so you know what that means?Hot takes time.Yes, it’s January and with a whole year of new cars ahead of us, I’m going to try and predict the future. But while these might meet the clickbait definition of a ‘hot take’ these aren’t just random thoughts, but rather these are five scenarios that I believe could play out in 2025 based on previous trends and the other available evidence.To be fair, I’m basing this at least in part to Toyota Australia boss Sean Hanley’s own prediction that he believes the RAV4 can leapfrog the Ford Ranger into first place. I agree with him that the Ranger will need to work hard to stay at the top of the charts, with its gap to the RAV4 less than 4000 sales in 2024.The Ranger will be entering its fourth year on sale, which means it no longer feels ‘new’ but is also too early for a mid-life upgrade, so it will need to rely on new additions like the Super Duty and plug-in hybrid to keep its interest high.The latter is really the key for Ford, with the Ranger PHEV having to face a direct rival in the form of the BYD Shark 6 - which wasn’t on the horizon when Ford announced its plug-in back in 2023.Meanwhile, the RAV4 remains beloved by SUV buyers, despite its many rivals, and Toyota is (reportedly) carrying over a healthy order bank that should maintain its steady sales pace.Whatever happens, it should be a close finish in the sales race.It’s safe to say Kia has copped some flak for the styling of its Tasman ute, which has raised concerns over its sales potential. But, personally, I think it will be a success story for Kia even if it doesn’t achieve the headline-grabbing sales figures the brand is hoping for.Kia’s goal to sell more than 20,000 Tasmans per year is an ambitious target, even if the styling had been universally praised, given the strength of the Ford Ranger and Toyota HiLux. But the truth is looks are subjective and the Tasman’s ultimate sales potential will come down to pricing and specifications. If Kia can give ute buyers a good value proposition, then undoubtedly many will jump aboard, regardless of what anyone says about the styling.Fleet operators who don’t care about subjective elements like style will likely be wooed by the expected five-star ANCAP rating and Kia’s reputation for reliability.Bottom line, even if Kia sells half of its expected numbers, adding 10,000 Tasmans to Kia’s tally is all incremental growth for a brand that has never previously offered a ute - and that will make it a big success.One of the key takeaways from the 2024 sales was the huge growth of hybrids (HEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) compared to the stalled sales of electric vehicles (EVs). Sales of pure electric models were only up 4.7 per cent after growing more than 160 per cent in 2023.That’s an enormous change of fortunes for EVs, which have always largely been underpinned by Tesla, which had a down year in 2024. Whether Tesla can rebound is one major question, with its sales down by more than 16,000 sales, but other brands will need to start selling more of their EVs if the market is to accelerate its growth again.It appears as though the market for EVs has largely been catered to, with a huge variety of makes and models across the spectrum of size and price, so there’s no longer any major barriers for EVs apart from consumer demand.Australians seem unconvinced by EVs in the broad sense, preferring dual-cab utes and mid-size SUVs with hybrid engines, and it seems unlikely to change in the short-term so I wouldn’t be betting on a big turnaround for electric sales in 2025.NVES, or the New Vehicle Efficiency Standards, grabbed plenty of headlines in 2024 as the car industry pushed back on long-overdue emissions regulations like kids not wanting to eat their vegetables. But despite the kicking and screaming from certain members of industry, NVES officially began on January 1 and the world hasn’t stopped turning.Inevitably there will be change thanks to NVES, with car brands needing to introduce more fuel-efficient vehicles or face financial penalties, however the government has effectively given the industry three years to sort itself out. Any brand above the limit in 2025 has until the end of 2027 to generate (or buy from a rival brand) ‘credits’ to offset their less-efficient models.In other words, expect ‘situation normal’ in 2025 with all the usual models you find in dealerships, albeit with a ramp up of more hybrids and PHEVs like we’ve begun to see in the last 18 months.Normally you’d expect the arrival of two big name models, which nearly double the options for buyers, to result in a sales boom for a particular market. And yet, despite the introduction of the Ford F-150 and Toyota Tundra, sales of ‘$100k plus utes’ (otherwise known as the US-style pick-ups) were up just a marginal 2.4 per cent in 2024.The segment still sold more than 10,000 units in 2024, which is an impressive number when you consider these are expensive and niche vehicles, but the arrival of the Ford and Toyota should have been a boost. They certainly helped offset the sales decline of the Ram 1500, which dropped as the current V8-powered model entered run-out, but it speaks to the limitations of the market.With the arrival of the new six-cylinder Ram 1500 to go along with the F-150 and Tundra, it’s hard to see the total volume of $100k plus utes getting much higher than 10,000 per year.

This year, South Australia activated its mobile phone detection cameras. In a three-month grace period before fines kicked off, 68,000 drivers had been snapped using their phones while on the move.Other states where these cameras already exist have resulted in tens of thousands of fines sent out for the same thing — which is disappointing. Using mobile phones behind the wheel is distracting, and we should really know better.But what about the other (increasingly) giant distractions in new cars: multimedia touchscreens? The limitation on using a mobile phone while driving is justified, but why do automotive multimedia systems get a pass? Just because they’re part of the car?Right now, the restrictions on phone use while driving are increasing, inverse to the increasing encouragement to interact with giant touchscreen devices attached to car dashes.It seems counterintuitive, given the proliferation of multimedia systems, that new drivers are starting to be able to afford cars with increasingly complex menus and functions accessible via a screen.Those learning to drive or those on provisional licences aren’t able to touch their phone (or even use via voice control function) at all in most cases while driving, but a 12.0-inch touchscreen mounted to the dash that runs everything in the car is fine?Again, this isn’t a suggestion we should be using our phones while driving — quite the opposite — but consider how familiar you are with your phone. If you’re anything like me (admittedly a millennial working in media), you might have your phone in your hand at least once every half hour, every day, and it probably doesn’t take you a lot of brain power to navigate its menus or apps.But can you say the same about the multimedia system in your car? Car reviewers (hello) drive plenty of different cars with different systems, and while we might not get the chance to become fluent in each and every multimedia system’s layout, we can certainly see that not all of them are as intuitive as an iPhone or Android phone.So why is it okay for drivers, especially new drivers, to have full access to these while navigating a rural back-road at 80km/h or in peak-hour traffic with cars unexpectedly braking regularly?Worse is that many brands are increasingly making those screens a necessity for functions like climate control and driving settings.But not every manufacturer has fallen into this bad habit.Some of the most popular brands in Australia — Toyota, Mazda, Kia and Hyundai — are keeping buttons alive with some even going a step further.Get into pretty much any new Hyundai or Kia and you’ll find there are still buttons galore, particularly physical climate controls.And while phone mirroring goes some way to simplifying multimedia operations, Toyota and Mazda apply limitations (as some other brands do) while a car is moving.Toyota’s menu options are limited unless the vehicle is in park, encouraging drivers to pull over to do anything particularly complex. Connecting a phone, for example often requires one to pull over.Mazda, on the other hand, completely deactivates the touchscreen unless the car is parked, requiring drivers to use the physical wheel or knob (the Commander control) in the centre console.It means there’s no leaning over and needing to be accurate with finger taps on a screen, rather the system can be navigated quite easily. It was once also a BMW staple, but no longer.Some brands are holding onto the convenience of buttons as others lean on screens, regulations may soon force a return to the physical controls that were once ubiquitous.Earlier in 2024, Euro NCAP announced it will require manufacturers to have physical controls for the horn, indicators, windscreen wipers, hazard lights and a call button for SOS.ANCAP here in Australia will follow on, with CEO Carla Hoorweg previously telling CarsGuide, the shifting of functions to touchscreens increases the risk of vehicle crashes on the road."We know driver distraction is a growing factor in road crashes, so it is important that certain in-vehicle controls are easily accessible by the driver and don't complicate the driving task or contribute to in-car distraction or inattention," she said."Physical buttons or stalks to operate these key vehicle controls will be encouraged through scoring, with manufacturers awarded points for the prioritisation of physical controls."The increase in screen functionality has been seen as a ‘premium’ design style, it’s not an opinion shared by every top-end manufacturer.In early 2024, Aston Martin Director of Design Miles Nurnberger told CarsGuide the need to create an actually functional interior overrides the desire to create a ‘clean’ look.He emphasised the balance between style and function when it comes to premium products, and seems to see screen functions as somewhat of an easy ‘trap’ to fall into for designers.“I might be able to make something seemingly more efficient by burying everything in a screen, but it doesn't talk to the real user experience,” he said, referring to the button-laden interior of the new Vantage.“You look at the best experience, the best user solution. It might be physical, it's tactile. I can do that with my thumb. I don't take my eyes off the road. I'm a better driver for it. You know that that's the mentality that led us to where we are.”Not everyone is aiming to be ‘a better driver’ to the extent that some behind the wheel of a Vantage might be, it certainly can’t hurt for everyone on the road to have a more intuitive and safer experience behind the wheel.Hopefully the distractions of car touchscreens doesn’t become a great enough problem to require similar rules to mobile phone use.

Cars have come a long way in the last few years. Many features once considered high-tech or luxury in the not-so-distant past (take autonomous emergency braking for example) are now standard, offering improved convenience, functionality and, most importantly, safety.

They sell and sell and sell, they’re so popular they’re ubiquitous on our roads, some of them may never be used on the dirt and yet they’ve all become the people-movers of choice in the 21st Century – but are utes and 4WDs actually any good for families?Utes and 4WD wagons have swiftly become the go-to conveyances nowadays for everyone from city-based families to mumpreneurs, from adventure-sport loving weekend warriors to tech big-wigs.That’s all well and good but are utes and 4WDs well suited to families?Read on.In terms of day-to-day performance, comfort and practicality as family vehicles, utes and wagons are fairly even.Let’s look at some of the positive and not-so-positive factors of both vehicle types.A ute has a lot going for it as a family vehicle and it has one very obvious major point of difference with wagons and passenger cars: its open tray or tub. This versatile load space means that the extent of your packing is not restricted by your vehicle’s roof-line (as it is in a wagon), because the tub doesn’t have one.You can load beyond the top edge of a ute’s tub if needed, and tall or awkwardly shaped loads aren’t a problem either – think flat-packed furniture, building materials, cement mixers, pinball machines … you get the idea.The flip side of that major positive though is that the load is not covered and so it is not protected from the weather (rain etc) and it is not secure (from opportunistic thieves and the like). The remedy to these issues is getting a lockable tub cover that provides protection and security for whatever you choose to load into the tray. However, those solutions mean that the tub then becomes a uniform load space, i.e. you won’t be able to load tall or awkwardly shaped equipment or materials into the tub unless you leave the cover open.There’s a huge variety of OEM and aftermarket tray/tub coverings (hard or soft tonneau covers, roller shutters, aluminium lids etc) from which to choose. Or you can buy an aftermarket canopy to be fixed to your ute tub to protect your loaded gear, and many of those options are lockable and feature-packed. However, a canopy is not an engineered-at-vehicle-origin solution, so while it offers much better security, water- and dust-proofing than having no tub cover at all, it’s no match for a wagon’s built-in load space.But, once again, by affixing a cover to a ute’s tub – whether it’s a tonneau, roller shutter, canopy, or simply a bit of tarp over the top – defeats the original purpose of owning an open-topped ute anyway, because by doing so you’re instantly robbing the ute tub of its load-carrying versatility.In other ways, utes have come a long away over the past decade or so and, though still wearing leaf-spring suspension set-ups engineered to cope with any anticipated work gear or leisure equipment, they are generally regarded as being at least in the vicinity of passenger cars, in terms of comfort, cabin amenities and driver-assist technology.Whereas ride quality and handling in unladen utes was once severely compromised due to the leaf-spring suspension, those issues have largely been addressed if not resolved, and contemporary utes are now generally more composed and predictable on sealed surfaces and corrugated dirt tracks than they once were – even without a load onboard.Wagons also have plenty of positives in their favour as family conveyances, even as standard, and those may make them more appealing than a 2WD passenger car or van in a buyer’s eyes.4WD wagons offer flexibility in terms of passenger-carrying capabilities because a wagon may have five, seven or eight seats.They also, most importantly, offer families based in the city, suburbs or rural areas the peace of mind that a vehicle lacking 4WD, genuine country-tough robustness and decent ground clearance simply doesn’t.Your valuables (people, pets, camping gear, collection of Star Wars action figures etc) are afforded safety and security in a wagon because it is a fully enclosed and lockable load space, accessible from the main cabin.Another plus in their favour: 4WD wagons have coil-spring set-ups, so ride quality and handling is composed and predictable on sealed surfaces and corrugated dirt tracks.Utes and wagons make great choices as family vehicles – hence they’re overwhelming popularity.They’re versatile people- and load-carrying vehicles; they’re comfortable, roomy, robust and offer the driver a peace of mind not possible in a passenger car.You may never take your family 4WD off the actual road, but at least you know you can if you want to.

It’s a year that will likely go down as an historical turning point for the Aussie new car market. With local manufacturing now a tiny spec in the rear view mirror, the long-predicted new wave of Chinese challenger brands built into an automotive tsunami in 2024.

These are the five best cars of 2024, according to CarsGuide journalist Chris Thompson

It’s fair to say General Motors’ decision to close Holden was not a popular one amongst the car-loving population of Australia (blue-blood Ford fans excluded). But in 2025 GM’s decision could be justified if its new vision for our market pays off.That vision, of course, is the switch to running under the General Motors Australia (and New Zealand) banner, with GM Specialty Vehicles (GMSV) offering Chevrolet and GMC models as well as the long-awaited introduction of Cadillac to our shores. GMSV, which sells the right-hand drive converted Chevrolet Silverado and soon the GMC Yukon as well as the Corvette range, sits under a separate banner to Cadillac, but it’s all one big happy GM family behind the scenes. This new business model will never see GM achieve the kind of sales volumes Holden did, but it has the potential to be a very profitable business for the American automotive giant. However, it will need to enjoy a successful 2025 if it’s to feel good about its long-term hopes in Australia, with several major challenges ahead of it.Firstly, there is its existing Silverado line-up, which faces increased competition from the Ford F-150 and Toyota Tundra, as well as the new-generation Ram 1500 due in 2025. These new rivals arrive amid a decline in sales for the ‘over $100k ute’ segment, which feels inevitable given the expense and fit-for-purpose nature of these types of US-style pickups.Silverado sales are on course to finish well up on the segment (nearly 15 per cent for the Silverado 1500 and more than 20 per cent for the Silverado HD), but maintaining that kind of growth in ‘25 will be crucial to the long-term viability of both Chevy models — and potentially the overall ‘big truck’ market.To diversify, GM Australia decided to introduce an SUV to its mix — the GMC Yukon.This works on multiple levels for the company as the Yukon is based on the same platform as the Silverado 1500 GMSV is already converting, but is a more luxurious model and therefore can carry a higher profit margin.It will become the only full-size SUV with a V8 engine and is loaded with space and creature comforts, the Yukon will be a tough sell. It’s priced from $169,990 (plus on-road costs), which positions it well above (circa-$20k) the Toyota LandCruiser 300 Series, its most obvious rival, so it high volumes won’t be likely but it could add meaningful sales to GMSV’s bottom line.Then there’s arguably GM Australia’s biggest risk — Cadillac. The American luxury brand is finally expanding its operations beyond North America, but there’s an obvious question around the timing of launching an all-electric brand now.Demand for electric vehicles has, at best, cooled off after a sudden surge a few years ago (when GM was making its decision). However, the brand’s first Australian-bound model, the Lyriq SUV, undercuts its key rivals from BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi on price, so it stands some chance on conquesting luxury buyers.There’s also a chance that Australian buyers will surge towards this all-new but very well-known brand in the market. We’ve seen an Australian soft spot for similar American vehicles in the past, such as the Corvette and Ford Mustang, and while the Cadillac Lyriq is a very different proposition it’s not outside the realms of possibility that Australians will be attracted to it.There are some fairly large ‘ifs’, ‘buts’ and ‘maybes’ surrounding General Motors’ Australian chances in 2025 so it could go either way. On the plus side it could establish its roots for even further growth, but on the flip side there is potential for a rough year that could cause GM’s Detroit management to re-think its Australian outlook. Only time will tell which way that will go, but we will watch General Motors’ sales performance with great interest next year…

I feel like 2024 was the eye of the storm. It’s the year, which sits between a big surge of electrification, yet before our market will be hit with a big shake-up with at least 12 new manufacturers entering the fray in 2025.

At the start of 2024 we asked the question ‘is Jeep lost?’ and the answer has categorically come back in the affirmative. The American brand is, to put it bluntly, in trouble and there doesn’t appear to be an obvious solution.

Ask Toyota — the world’s biggest carmaker — and two brands are enough.Yes, Toyota makes trucks under the Hino brand and also has the minnow Daihatsu in its stable, but it is essentially Toyota and Lexus and that’s it.Part of Toyota’s success in Australia is it sells a vehicle for everyone, and every occasion.Lexus rarely steps on its big brother’s toes, with a clear premium divide separating the two.Now Chinese behemoth, Geely, is gearing up for an assault on the Australian market.It has a strong toehold Down Under with Volvo and Polestar, but after that is where things get murky.It also has Lotus, Smart, Zeekr and its home brand Geely to forge ahead with in 2025.Volvo and Polestar have clearly positioned themselves in the luxury space, but Geely, Smart and Zeekr are chasing the same mainstream buyers.All three are electric only, and are launching with semi-premium compact and mid-size SUVs.They are essentially the same vehicle underneath a slightly different styled skin. But electric cars all have similar looks, honed for aerodynamics, which gives them all a same-same-ness despite a tweaked non-grille or headlight treatment.The brands all share motors, batteries and tech features, which helps amortise costs, but can be a challenge when attempting to stand out from the crowd.Geely recently merged two of its brands, Zeekr and Lynk and Co, to reduce internal competition.According to Reuters, Geely boss Gui Shengyue said the integration would make the company more competitive."If we don't integrate , we must face issues such as internal competition ... and redundant investments in many aspects such as R&D, sales, which is stupid," he said according to Reuters.Geely isn’t alone in crowding its own space.The huge Volkswagen Group has Volkswagen, Skoda and newcomer Cupra all lobbing cars in a similar price bracket.The big difference is only Cupra is new, the VW Group isn’t attempting to launch three new brands in the space of 12 months that sell effectively the same cars.It’ll be a challenge for these three Chinese brands to stand out.They also face a wave of competition following them across the sea. GAC, Aion, Xpeng, Skywell, Leapmotor and Deepal are all planning to launch or have launched into the same market space as their compatriots.Not to mention established brands such as BYD, Chery, GWM and MG already with a group of loyal buyers and brand cache.It is starting to feel like China’s car industry is replacing the building industry responsible for towering ghost towns as its biggest economic driver and they need to find export markets quickly to keep the production lines open and the steel mills firing.Australia is a prime target with its lack of tariffs and relatively close proximity to the Chinese mainland.There are storm clouds brewing on the edge of the Australia new car market, though.Electric cars still only make up about 8.3 per cent of new cars bought through the first 11 months of 2024. More EVs have found homes this year than last, but less than 10 per cent is still relatively niche.Private buyers — generally the ones snapping up EVs — are stepping away from new car purchases at an alarming rate.Double digit drops in private buyers in each of the past four months compared to the year before is a worrying trend according to the head of the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, Tony Weber.“This is a disturbing trend which illustrates how cost of living pressures are impacting households,” he said.Only time will tell if these brands can make it work, but it’ll be a tough slog in 2025.