Articles by Laura Berry

The rapid and seemingly unstoppable expansion of Chinese carmakers is something to behold.But is it too far-fetched to think all cars will be Chinese within the next 20 years? Or is it naive not to see it as a strong possibility?For a long time I’ve thought the emergence of new Chinese cars in Australia and globally was the natural progression of the car industry. New brands morph from alternative fledgling brands to mature and established ones. We saw this with Japanese brands such as Toyota, Mazda, Mitsubishi and Nissan which gained popularity in the 1960s and ’70s before becoming established go-to brands in the 1980s and ’90s as they fought homegrown heroes Ford and Holden for space in Australia's driveways. And it stayed that way until the first decade of the 2000s ticked over.Holden and Ford’s ranges and sales shrank giving way to the Koreans who filled the gap with Hyundai and Kia which have climbed high into the top 10 thanks to an excellent range of SUVs and EVs.They’re now marching towards the only brands that stand in their way - Mitsubishi, Ford, Mazda and Toyota - which, by the way, have about three EVs between them.And given another five years Kia and Hyundai may have been able to topple Toyota from number one. But it might be too late for that. The presence of a large and fast-growing force is creating major uncertainty for the established brands in the Australian market - the rise and rise of Chinese brands. At the end of 2024 there were 12 Chinese brands operating in Australia and this year we’re expecting at least another seven to arrive. To put that in perspective we currently have a total of 50 car brands in Australia and nine are Japanese. By the end of 2025 the Chinese tally could easily be 20 brands or 30 per cent of Australia's brand make up.Several Chinese brands have been in Australia for years and have already done the hard yards. It took MG a couple of attempts to find a foothold but it was the seventh best-selling brand in 2024, while GWM came in at 10th. LDV is further down but still sold more than 16,000 vehicles here last year.The newer Chinese arrivals show huge promise with most of them offering affordable electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids when the established brands have only a handful among them, usually at higher prices.BYD, Zeekr, Leapmotor, Geely, Deepal, XPeng, Smart, JAC, Aion, Chery and Jaecoo will spend 2025 launching a multitude of new vehicles here. BYD will be one to watch having sold more cars here last year than Mercedes-Benz and it will likely enter the top 10 best sellers next year. Geely, which is the ‘Volkswagen of China’ in terms of its size and how many brands it owns, is another to watch.Chinese car manufacturers' speed of production, the development of new platforms and technology, the low cost of batteries, availability of electronics and the breakthroughs being made in charging systems, plus the sheer amount of money and Chinese government support behind them make competition almost impossible for many other brands.It’s almost certain that some established brands will bow out of Australia, unable to compete with Chinese brands. It’s also feasible that within the next decade more than half the Australian market could be made up of Chinese brands. And surely some Chinese brands won’t be able to cut it here and leave, too.Who could survive? Well, time has shown that even the mighty like Holden have fallen if they don’t make the cars people want to buy. The sheer brute force of Chinese brands being able to offer what people want quickly and at a low price, and at an always improving tech level could be too difficult for many other brands to fight off.In an extreme scenario this could lead to a 100 per cent Chinese brand market within 15 years. Sounds far fetched? Well they’re a third of the way there already.  

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Five years ago Holden executives were secretly hatching a plan to save the brand by teaming up with the Chinese car maker behind MG and LDV. Now looking back in 2025 as Chinese brands win over Aussie hearts, the move would have been one of pure genius that would have seen Holden not just survive but maybe even thrive.The deal was close and it could have worked incredibly well, given what we know now. The plan would see Holden and Chinese auto giant SAIC enter an agreement allowing MG cars and LDV utes to be rebadged as Holdens.This was all happening in 2020 - three years after Holden’s parent company General Motors had shut down local manufacturing. The Aussie-built Commodore was replaced with an imported Opel Insignia wearing a Holden badge. The move left Holden in a horrendous situation where it was having to scrape around at the bottom of the auto barrel looking for right-hand-drive vehicles within General Motors global portfolio - the Cruze, for example, was a Daewoo Lacetti Premiere which garnered a reputation for mechanical problems.The deal with SAIC was far more promising. GM already had a joint-venture with SAIC in China, so there was already technology sharing between the companies. But just as Holden’s executives were about to act General Motors announced Holden would end operations at the end of 2021.Holden’s interim chairman and managing director Kristian Aquilina faced a parliamentary inquiry in 2020 into the closure where he was grilled by Senator James McGrath. Reading the minutes of the inquiry reveal Senator McGrath asking if Holden would be sold to a Chinese owner. “I just want to get reassurance from you in relation to the Holden brand. MG, a famous British automobile company, is now owned by a Shanghai-based state-owned company in China. Can you give us an assurance that General Motors won't sell off the Holden brand to, for example, a state-owned company in China, or indeed any other company? Can you give us that assurance?” asked Senator McGrathAquilina's response was firm: “I'm not going to address any hypotheticals, but I want to assure you of this: Holden remains within our ownership, within General Motors ownership.”The exchange showed what appears to be a nervous and hostile attitude toward the prospect of the Australian brand being owned by another carmaker.But a Chinese owner might have helped Holden more than the American one - which left it with nothing. Looking at how dramatically the world’s car landscape has changed with Chinese manufacturers moving at an almost impossible speed both in the development of battery technology and production of high quality, stylish cars makes you think that a Holden owned by Chinese owners may have been a much better prospect.The suggestion also by the Senator that MG was somehow worse off under SAIC ownership is questionable now. MG produced 700,000 vehicles in 2024 and 50,000 of them were sold in Australia, making it the seventh most bought car brand here. MG has never been more successful, never sold more cars AND never been driven by more people.A Holden under SAIC ownership or close joint venture would have probably seen the brand offered in a range of petrol, diesel, hybrid and electric vehicles at prices that would have been affordable.Sure, SUVs would have absolutely formed the backbone of a 2025 Holden model line-up, but the MG3 could have been given a Barina badge and there would have even been room for a halo car in the same way MG has the Cyberster - an electric Monaro maybe? Ok, maybe not that far. But a electric Caprice luxury Car? That could work.Plus, Holden 4x4 utes could have been a thing again. SAIC could have drawn on the same ladder-frame architecture that underpins the LDV T60 ute or the eT60 ute, which might have helped Holden beat old rival Ford to the electric ute post.Of course, there’s the electric Holdens that could have been had the brand been sold to SAIC. The excellent MG4 would have been a perfect electric Holden Cruze - possibly one of the best Holdens ever in its new EV form.Then there’s all the Holden jobs which could have been saved. Sure, maybe not the production line folks, but the design teams and the engineers could have continued on in some form, as is the case with MG's design studio in London.Even today with a new version of the Holden Commodore exists in China as the Buick Regal GS. It's an Opel Insignia-based ZB Commodore and despite the platform being owned by Stellantis now, thanks to a loophole the car can be sold as a Buick by SAIC-GM in China. Yes, even the Commodore could have easily lived on here in Australia, even if it was made in China.Not to mention the other Chevrolet models the brand could have drawn from like the next-generation Equinox which is currently assembled in China.Of course none of this happened. General Motors wanted to keep rights to the Holden brand for at least 10 years as it said it wanted to provide service and support to owners for at least a decade.Perhaps in five years time General Motors will sell the Holden brand to SAIC, or Geely or BYD. Would people really think that's a bad idea now? Will anybody even remember Holden then? Then again, it did work for MG...

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