Articles by Chris Thompson

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Talk of slowing electric car demand in the Australian new car market is rife, but an unexpected voice has said there is big growth coming.Between 2022 and 2023, EV sales increased by a meteoric 161.1 per cent (from 33,410 to 87,217), but in 2024 that increase was just 4.6 per cent. So far in 2025 sales are down 37 per cent.Hybrid and plug-in hybrid car were up about 76.0 and 100 per cent in 2024 — but a senior Toyota executive of all people said EVs will take up a much larger share of the market within the next several years.The reason it might be surprising to hear that come from a Toyota Australia exec — namely Vice President of Sales, Marketing and Franchise Operations Sean Hanley — is Toyota currently sells just one electric car in Australia, the bZ4X.In 2024 the brand shifted fewer than 1000 units of the bZ4X, 977 to be specific, compared to the 241,296 total new Toyotas Australians bought for the year.That means that for every (roughly) 241 new Toyotas sold in 2024, just one was a bZ4X. And for every 114 new EVs of any brand, only one was a Toyota.It’s a far cry from the usual one-in-five new cars being a Toyota that the brand has become used to.Toyota’s of course going to have to find a way to increase its share of the EV market if it’s going to maintain market dominance, but just how much of the market will be electric cars in a few years’ time? What about a decade?“I mean, everyone’s got predictions, but my thoughts around this are BEVs will probably cap it around that 30 to 40 per cent of the market at some point,” Hanley said.“I'm not entirely sure that'll be in the near future, but it'll happen.”Despite the EV slowdown, Hanley said he expects to start seeing more clarity in where the market will plateau for different forms of electrification between 2030 and 2035.“The idea that EVs will keep dropping, dropping, dropping south is not going to happen. They're actually going to grow. Yeah, let's be upfront. They're going to grow.“And that's why we’ve got to be part of that phase, because it's going to happen. NVES will play some role in that growth. But in actual fact, car companies and customers will drive that growth.”So why would a senior executive at a brand that’s currently behind the curve when it comes to EVs be so outwardly confident electric cars are will make up more than a quarter of the market within a decade?After all, Toyota is 19.6 per cent of the new car market overall, but just 0.9 per cent of the new electric car market going by 2024’s sales figures.Hanley said Toyota is going to grow its EV portfolio in Australia, along with the rest of the brand’s ‘multi-pathway approach to decarbonisation’.“Despite popular opinion, Toyota is actually saying Toyota EVs will grow over the next four, five years.“Probably thinking around 30 per cent would be where I see it . But give or take, it could go to 40 right?“That would be the top end, but it certainly will be more than 10 per cent you've seen or the less than 10 per cent you see today.”For reference, Hanley’s correct about the EV sales share still not having reached 10 per cent for a calendar year - 2024’s EV sales share was about 7.6 per cent of the total new car market.What exactly Toyota’s EV line-up for Australia will be isn’t clear — but Toyota Europe is about to unleash a slew of new electric models over the next year or so.The brand just revealed its new C-HR+ electric car in Europe but it seems to be destined only for that market for now.It’s one of at least six EV models Toyota plans to have on sale by 2026 (including the bZ4X), but amongst the teaser silhouettes were two cars that seem much more suited to local tastes — the LandCruiser Se and EPU ute concepts.When they were revealed in 2023, Sean Hanley said the chances of Australia getting them would be “extremely good” if they reach production. It seems now that they will.Hanley reiterates that, aside from the GR sub-brand’s performance cars, Toyota aims to implement some form of electrification on “the vast majority of Toyotas”.“Where it gets interesting is when people hear that, they suddenly think ‘oh, so Toyota is going to be all BEV’,” Hanley said.“Well, no, actually, we're not. That's not what we're saying. When we talk about electrification, we talk about all forms, whether it be plug-in hybrid, battery electric, fuel cell electric or hybrid electric.”How long it takes, and whether Toyota is able to replicate its market dominance within the EV space is yet to be seen, but the brand certainly has a way to go if that’s the aim — the rise from less than one per cent of the electric car market to around 20 per cent to match its overall market position is a long one.

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Toyota Australia has spruiked its ‘multi-pathway approach to decarbonisation’ for years now, in a bid to avoid putting all its emission-cutting eggs in one basket.One of those pathways, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), is starting to take in Australia — along with conventional hybrids (which Toyota is immensely well-versed in).Toyota Australia's approach to PHEVs is, as the company’s Vice President of Sales, Marketing and Franchise Operations Sean Hanley said, slow so far.“Well, at the moment, we don't have any in Australia, that's where we're sitting right now. But in the future, you'll definitely see plug-in hybrids, PHEVs, as part of our product portfolio.”In the last couple of years, Hanley has told CarsGuide PHEVs are his expectation for the ‘next big rise’ in electrification, and the increase in uptake for the tech isn’t proving him wrong so far.So, if PHEVs are the next big thing, where are Toyota’s? Certainly not in Australia, despite the company having some on offer globally — especially in the US where a PHEV version of the RAV4 and Prius are available.While Toyota was happy to lead the way when it came to conventional hybrids more than 20 years ago, it seems like the brand’s local arm is waiting for the tech to mature a little more before locking it in for Australia.“PHEV… it's going to go gangbusters, right?” Hanley told CarsGuide.“Because especially in the later part of this decade, when I think you're going to find battery technology will have evolved to a point where you're going to get a fairly decent range on an EV charge.“It's still not going to be 500kms, because you might as well go to BEV if you're going to do that.“But if you can get a PHEV that gives 200 kilometres on a normal driving cycle, city driving and I'm not saying towing. BEVs and PHEVs, let's be clear, still have their anomalies. You tow, you turn the air conditioner on, all these things impact battery power.“So I'm talking about a normal drive, but if you had 200kms from a PHEV, that's a very good technology for Australia. So I think PHEVs will rise.”We asked if that means Toyota doesn’t see the tech as being quite right for the market just yet, but Hanley clarified: “No, no. It's an evolution.”“I mean, we don't have that vehicle, as of right now.“But what I'm saying in that comment is that if we can ever get to that point, and there's no doubt that battery technology will evolve to that point, that makes plug-in hybrid an incredibly engaging and appealing power train.”When asked if that means the RAV4 Plug-in Hybrid (or Prime as it was previously known in the US) could become an option in Australia, Hanley said it might be some way down the line.“We may in the future. But, you know, in the meantime you got a few years, I think, before that day is coming.“But ideally, if you get to 200km that would be utopia.”Hanley’s not personally averse to the idea of PHEVs, having spent quite some time behind the wheel of a plug-in from Toyota’s premium arm, Lexus.“In the meantime, I was happy driving an NX450h, which gave me my 80 kilometres or thereabouts, you know, charge it every night. I was basically running EV, but if that had 200km, that would have been good.”Globally, PHEVs are starting to be updated and improved with battery ranges well above 100km for EV driving, so over the next few years it could be worth watching the development of battery tech for hybrids to see just how suitable for Australia Toyota finds them before the end of the decade.