Why car brands face an uncertain future
By Stephen Ottley · 28 Jul 2026
The biggest change in the Australian automotive landscape since the demise of Holden is about to play out in the coming years.In just the past few weeks we’ve seen both Peugeot and Fiat ‘pause’ Australian operations amid steeply declining sales. Peugeot has sold just 427 cars in the first half of 2026, a more than 40 per cent decline on its sales last year. Fiat was even worse off, managing just 144 sales.They could potentially join a growing list of brands that have officially left the Australian market in recent years, including not only Holden but Chrysler, Dodge, Infiniti, Opel and Citroen.The problem is simple, and one I have outlined before - you can’t fit 10kg of dirt in a 5kg bag. The cold, hard fact is the Australian car market isn’t very big, at least not in global terms, with between 1.1 and 1.2 million cars sold each on average.The pie is only so big, so to speak, so with each new brand that arrives, the slice of pie each brand gets grows smaller. When a brand like BYD arrives and quickly rises to claim an 8.6 per cent market share, as it has done in the first half of this year, those sales have to come from another brand’s share.There are now about 70 brands, and more coming seemingly every month, competing for those one million sales. With Toyota taking a 15.7 per cent share, BYD with its 8.6 per cent and a few other brands like Kia, Hyundai and Mazda with more than five per cent, it doesn’t leave much for the rest.Brands with less than one per cent market share include, Alfa Romeo, Chevrolet, Cupra, Deepal, Foton, Genesis, JAC, Jaguar, Jeep, KGM, Land Rover, Leapmotor, Renault, Skoda and XPeng.Market share is not a guarantee of success either. Holden may have lost some share in its final years, but it was still a leading car brand in Australia at the time General Motors pulled the plug. But obviously the more vehicles you sell the better your chances of survival.One of the obvious reasons for this dramatic change in the past five years has been in the flux of Chinese car brands. Many have arrived with appealing products at an attractive price, which is why BYD, GWM, Chery and MG have all made meaningful inroads into the market.Obviously these brands, and the rest of the Chinese newcomers, put pressure on the established order, but that is how a free market works. The competition between brands drives improvement in the cars we drive and the value brands offer us.Not to be harsh, but if Holden, Chrysler and the rest offered more appealing products to Australian new car buyers they’d still be here. That’s the cold reality of capitalism.Having said that, the new Chinese brands are not any safer than any of the established names, perhaps even more at risk. Case in point, Foton and XPeng are both already on their second attempt at the Australian market.On top of this increasing market competition car brands are also facing the challenges from the New Vehicle Efficiency Standards (NVES). This requires them to sell more lower emission vehicles or face heavy financial penalties and many brands were simply not prepared for it.It means many brands need to deal with increased competition putting pressure on them to make their cars cheaper, while at the same time potentially needing to make their cars more expensive to compensate for government fines.As one industry expert put it to me several years ago, when NVES was being developed, not all brands will survive. It’s sad, it will mean job losses and less choice for you, the new car buyer, but that is simply the reality we all face.Holden may have been a high-profile departure but Peugeot and Fiat’s recent 'pause' is likely a portent of things to come. The Australian new car market is now a survival of the fittest and that will likely mean it looks very different in the not-too-distant future…