Why you shouldn't count Toyota out of the EV race, as the 2026 Toyota bZ4X and C-HR EV aren't the brand's only options for electrified dominance | Opinion

Toyota cancelled another of its upcoming electric vehicles last week -in this case it was its luxury arm Lexus and the LF-ZC sedan leaving it even more exposed to the premium Chinese EV assault.

So, are we seeing the fall of an empire here with Toyota or does the Japanese giant have a secret plan?

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In 2021 Toyota held a global address announcing that it would launch 30 new EVs by 2030. Well, we are now only about three and a half years away from the end of the decade and Toyota has only launched about three and a half  EVs - the bZ4x, Toyota HiLux, C-HR, and the longer version of the bZ4x - the Touring. 

The reason is a change of direction. Two years ago Toyota revised its plans and decided that the uptake of EVs wasn’t as strong as many had expected and decided to double down on hybrids instead.

The decision made sense - the world was experiencing a slow down in the adoption of EVs and Toyota delayed pouring A$100 billion into the development of 30 new models.

Toyota Australia's Vice President Sales at the time Sean Hanley told CarsGuide in January 2025 that the company had read the market accurately after all.

“The plain truth is that demand for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in markets around the world is not living up to the hype,” he said.

Hybrid sales were booming and Toyota changed plans and went back to doing what it had pioneered - hybrid powertrains. 

But March 2026 saw the world change again with the war in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz being blocked and preventing oil from being shipped through the channel. 

About 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas is transported through the channel and by the second month of the blockade the world’s petrol and diesel prices skyrocketed, particularly in Australia which sources its refined fuel from countries such as Malaysia which are supplied with oil from the Middle East.

With this turn of events consumer interest in electric vehicles picked up again.

Sales of EVs had gone from being down year-on-year by 61.9 per cent for cars (sedans and hatches) and down 12 per cent for SUVs in January 2025 to up by 77.4 per cent for cars and up by 150 per cent for SUVs.

So why is Toyota still axing EVs? Well, never underestimate Toyota. The brand may look like it’s suddenly behind the eight-ball after a huge geopolitical change and it may also look like the victim of a surprise attack from a multitude of appealing Chinese electric offerings from brands such BYD and Zeekr, but Toyota is the world’s biggest car manufacturer and you can bet it either has a plan… or it can buy one.

There are several possible plays going on here in my opinion.

First, Toyota is probably banking on the spike in EV interest to fall once the conflict is over and believes consumers will return to hybrids. This is probably the most likely scenario, although I doubt people will return to buying petrol and diesel cars now without thinking about it as they did in the past. The fuel crisis has been a major catalyst in the switch to EVs.

A second scenario is that Toyota is close to a solid state battery breakthrough and is holding off EV development until an affordable and practical example can be made, but this seems less likely.

Toyota finding the solid state holy grail of batteries seemed like a possibility five years ago but Chinese carmakers such as Chery, BYD and battery maker CATL are reportedly already testing the tech in prototype form before an expected market launch between 2027 and 2030. When the solid state battery breakthrough comes it will be thanks to a Chinese carmaker - with recent commentary from Toyota itself placing doubt on the idea of the technology ever being ready for mass production.

And third, which is probably going to happen, Toyota may decide to take the vehicles it produces in joint-ventures in China  and launch them globally.

Toyota already has two major joint ventures in China - one with Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC) and the other with First Automotive Works (FAW).

Toyota-GAC models include the bZ7 fastback along with Chinese versions of the bZ3X and bZ4X.

And before you scoff at Chinese Toyotas, just look at the bZ7. To my eyes this is one of the most beautiful Toyotas from the past decade which isn't hard considering the brand is famous for making what some people consider whitegoods on wheels.

And with the changing of the guard in Australia, Toyota locally now appears to have decided which plan to go they'll pursue.

Toyota Australia's new Vice President of Sales, John Pappas has a slightly different take on the situation than his predecessor and appears to be embracing the possibility of the company using its global manufacturing reach to sell cars into the future. 

“So the beautiful thing, the benefit of being such a global company like Toyota, and being in around 180 markets all around the world, and having so many manufacturing plants, that enables us to assess - whether it's sourcing of the vehicle, spec, powertrain.”  

The future may prove to be a bit of scenario one to start and then into scenario three with Chinese made Toyotas. Either way the world’s biggest car brand has plenty of options to survive and thrive.