Toyota's tough start to 2026: Australia's best-selling brand facing shortages of 2026 RAV4, HiLux, and LandCruiser Prado

Two months into 2026, traditional new car sales leader Toyota is 25 per cent down on the same period last year with a total of 27,916 units shifted to the end of February compared to 37,256 in 2025.

So, what gives? RAV4 registrations have fallen off a cliff, with 2025’s top seller no less than 73.8 per cent behind its prior year result (2480 units vs 9481).

After a sub-par January, the HiLux has mounted something of a fightback but is still close to 10 per cent behind year-on-year in critical 4WD form (5315 units vs 5893).

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And the new-generation Prado is down a whopping 52 per cent YOY (2665 units vs 5570).

After 23 consecutive years as the top-selling brand in the local new car market are cracks starting to appear at the top of the Toyota sales mountain?

Is the endless wave of new challenger brands entering the local market starting to impact that seemingly impenetrable 20 per cent share figure Toyota has held with a vice-like grip for so long?

Well, probably not. A Toyota Australia spokesperson told CarsGuide the brand is still aiming for a 200,000-plus unit result for 2026, which would equate to, you guessed it… 20 per cent market share.

2026 Toyota HiLux SR

First, the RAV4 had a big December 2025 and with the current model in run-out mode it’s doing just that… running out, according to Toyota, “very cleanly”.

And with the sixth-gen version coming in March, Toyota makes no bones about the fact that supply is unlikely to come back to full strength (and possibly more) until the end of that month or even early April.

As we’ve previously reported, based on the model's usual sales figures, it's safe to assume an order bank close to, if not more than, 10,000 units for the new RAV4 Hybrid.

2026 Toyota RAV4

Then, the HiLux shortfall relates to not all variants of the new ninth-generation ute being available yet. So it’s a similar story here, with a “healthy” bank of orders being progressively filled over the next couple of months.

And the fifth-generation LandCruiser Prado has been in high demand since it arrived here in late 2024 and we’re assured the current shortfall is down to boat arrival timing issues, which presumes March numbers will be higher, as orders are "strong."

Of course, published monthly registration data means there’s nowhere to hide when it comes to new vehicle sales. So, we’ll see if the good ship Toyota, still by far the dominant new car player, gets back on course beyond the first quarter of the year.