Toyota, BYD and Tesla are winning 2026, with several newcomers shooting up the charts

2026 has been a watershed year for new vehicle sales in Australia, with the tsunami of new challenger brands from China continuing to pound our shores with full-force.

It’s upset the established order on the industry leaderboard, with BYD (up 115 per cent) charging into second spot through the end of July, and sending a shudder through the hallowed halls of traditional number one, Toyota Australia, and unceremoniously relegating Ford to the third step of the podium.

The rapid rise of Chery (up 71.3 per cent) and GWM (up 16.6 per cent YTD) has meant former high-ranking top 10 regulars Mazda and Hyundai have been shuffled down the order, with Mitsubishi hanging on by the skin of its teeth in tenth. 

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Question is, what does this furious churn of customers mean for overall sales? Is the market likely to expand, or given its historical stability, come in close to previous years?

So, let's start at the top. After a faltering start to the year marked by supply shortfalls of the in-demand RAV4 and HiLux, Toyota looks to be in the midst of staging a monumental comeback.

And since then, the company said it has “worked closely with its global partners to secure further stock to help satisfy strong demand”. 

In fact, Toyota Australia Vice President Sales, Marketing and Franchise Operations John Pappas has said, "Increased supply of key models including HiLux, RAV4, Corolla Cross and bZ4X would play a key role in Toyota passing the 230,000 sales target for 2026.”

It’s worth noting Toyota was the leader in 2025 with 239,863 sales, representing approximately 19.8 per cent of the total market.

Which means normal programming is set to resume in terms of Toyota’s numbers and the Japanese giant’s first place positioning.

In fact everything from the new Atto 1 light electric hatch and Atto 2 compact EV SUV to the Sealion 5 and Sealion 8 SUVs are firing.

In terms of a 2026 prediction, all BYD has said is it “would like to be in the top three by the end of the year.” 

We’d suggest that’ll mean a number in excess of 80,000 units and with 2025 second and third place finishers Ford and Mazda down 10.8 and 16.7 per cent, respectively so far this year, BYD’s aspiration looks well within reach. 

A total of 103,656 new vehicles were registered in Australia in July this year, which represents a modest 0.5 per cent increase over the same month last year (103,097 units) with the overall year-to-date number down just 0.2 per cent (710,449 vs 711,908 units).

The sales trend and numbers as they stand for 2026 so far point towards a year-end figure in the vicinity of 1.22 million units, which would be only fractionally up on the 1.21 million cars sold here last year.

Economics 101 says in a mature, stable market that’s invaded by a host of new competitors, something’s got to give.

Not every brand will get out of the Aussie new car sales race alive and the winners and losers over the next five months will be a telling pointer to which brands, new and not-so-new, are potentially heading towards the departure lounge longer-term.       

Australian new vehicle sales Top 10 - Year-to-date end July 2026

Source: VFacts / Electric Vehicle Council