Last year saw a paradigm shift in Australia’s new-car market.
The introduction of the government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) catapulted Australia’s emissions regime from the 1980s into the 21st century, and many brands began re-thinking their line-ups in Australia as the clock started on tough fines.
Perhaps the biggest and most unprecedented change was the rise of the BYD Shark 6, which pretty much single-handedly proved the dual-cab ute class can be electrified, while the Chinese juggernaut stormed its way up the charts, helping to permanently re-shape the make-up of Australia’s favourite automakers.
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In the first months of 2026, the shift has continued. China has now become the number one source of new cars to Australia, finally taking over from Japan and Thailand.
But what can we expect to look back on by the end of this year? What will change and how will your new car buying experience be re-shaped?
Making predictions is always dangerous, but with another fuel crisis hitting hard, we can be fairly certain of at least a few outcomes — let’s see what we think.
The dawn of the diesel-hybrid
Chery’s headline-grabbing news from the past few months has been the confirmation of its upcoming diesel hybrid ute, codenamed KP31, for Australia.
The upcoming and much-hyped Chery ute will bring what many buyers are asking for - diesel capability with plug-in hybrid fuel consumption.
We know more about this upcoming ute thanks to its reveal in China under Chery’s commercial arm, Rely.
It will use a new ground-up ‘Kaitan’ platform, and will maintain solid links to the axles - more like GWM’s Cannon Alpha PHEV than the BYD Shark 6.
It will also be hoping to seize on the plug-in hybrid ute trend, which BYD has kick-started, and many of its rivals are now seeking to emulate. Whether the extra capability and allure of diesel is enough to make it the next hot thing in dual-cabs remains to be seen.
More storied automakers will look to China for help
Nissan has made it fairly clear that it will look to China for help, with its appealing range of Chinese-built vehicles benefitting from Chinese hybrid and EV know-how and rapid development cycles.Â
The latter, which has become known as ‘China Speed’ in the industry, will cut the time it takes to do things that once meant long waits, like the conversion to right-hand drive and the various changes required to meet compliance regulations in obscure markets like Australia.
No doubt Nissan’s most sought-after Chinese-built model will be the Frontier Pro plug-in hybrid dual-cab, long suggested by executives to be an emissions-friendly alternative to be sold alongside the Mitsubishi Triton-based new-generation Navara in the Australian market.
Nissan’s Chinese portfolio doesn’t end there. The brand also has an array of well-received-in-China electric cars, including the N7 sedan and upcoming NX8 SUV as ideal replacements for its ageing Pathfinder, and NVES-friendly supplemental models to the hybrid X-Trail and Qashqai.
Nissan certainly isn’t the only brand that might be forced to turn more to China to bolster its line-up. Ford, facing a particular cliff with NVES in the coming years thanks to its diesel-heavy sales footprint of Rangers and Everests might need to import cars like the Chinese ‘New-Energy’ plug-in hybrid Ford Bronco (related to the American Ford Bronco in design only) as a more appealing emissions-friendly option for its more adventure-curious buyers.
Even Toyota, whose line-up is already heavily hybrid may need to turn to its Chinese joint-ventures for more price-sensitive zero emissions models like the GAC Aion V-based bZ3X which was recently announced in right-hand drive for the Hong Kong market. Watch this space.
The top-10 will continue to be re-shaped
At the end of 2025 there were three Chinese brands in the top 10 in Australia: GWM in seventh position, BYD in eighth position, and MG in 10th.
Already in the first few months of 2026, this ranking has continued to shift. BYD has already unseated GWM as Australia’s favourite Chinese brand and has vaulted Mitsubishi, landing in sixth position through the first two months of the year.
This puts it within striking distance of Hyundai in a tightly contested race for a top-three position (there are less than 1000 sales between Mazda, Ford, Kia and Hyundai in the next four positions below Toyota), which BYD bosses bravely predicted for 2026.
GWM is holding position in seventh, but Mitsubishi might not be able to hold it at bay for long.
Chery is one to watch in 2026, as it has managed to leapfrog MG and clinch eighth position so far this year.
Other more recent arrivals from China also have brave top-10 predictions. GAC could be the next brand to leap up the charts following in the footsteps of its contemporaries. While it may seem farfetched now, the Toyota-allied brand has access to the right products at similarly aggressive prices, with hybrids and plug-ins featuring heavily in its line-up, which the brand recently told CarsGuide is set to include a large SUV and ute before long.
China-owned MG, too, will be playing defence, launching a range of more affordable vehicles as it looks to hang on to its top-10 position.
Thailand is down, but not out
Thailand at various times has been one of the locations from which most Australian cars are sourced. Toyota, Honda and Ford have historically sourced many models from there, with the current top-selling Ranger, HiLux and D-Max all being sourced from the country.
It has dropped down the list, as Chinese-built cars have increasingly been sourced for Australia from both new and historic brands. With even the Kia EV5 and Hyundai Elexio being Chinese-built Korean cars for the Australian market.
But Thailand’s importance looks to be re-asserted as more Chinese brands establish strategic manufacturing facilities in the South East Asian auto hub.
Obvious advantages are the fact that cars are built there on dedicated right-hand drive production facilities, freeing up space in Chinese factories to focus on other left-hand drive markets, while favourable government kickbacks, a free trade agreement with Australia, and a domestic market with an increasingly large taste for electrified vehicles will keep Thailand important for years to come.
Big SUVs will be the next Chinese automaker battleground
In case you haven’t noticed, many big Chinese brands have shifted their focus. While utes and affordable hatchbacks and small SUVs continue to be all the rage, in their quest to actually generate profits, many Chinese brands have thrown huge amounts of resources into developing large luxury electric and plug-in hybrid models.
The five-meter-long SUV space looks to be the next major battleground for these automakers, with Zeekr’s much-hyped plug-in hybrid 8X large SUV earmarked for an Australian arrival, and no doubt MG’s luxury IM marque will be looking to import versions of its LS8 or LS9.
GAC has announced its next move will be a large SUV (likely the car known as the GS8 in China), while Leapmotor will move into new territory with its D16 and BYD’s Great Tang flagship have created some major buzz.
Will they sell in Australia? With more fuel-conscious than ever new car buyers still crying out for more affordable electric options than the Kia EV9 for example (from $97,000) and Chinese automakers heavily incentivized to seek higher profit margins in markets like Australia, it seems possible we could be inundated with models like this in the latter part of the year.