The age of the ute is over 

Utes have been the dominant force in the Australian new car landscape for the past decade.

The Toyota HiLux and Ford Ranger have been among the two best-selling vehicles in that time, but that is about to come crashing down.

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He also said the ute market has peaked and there isn’t much scope for growth, plus the arrival of many new rivals in the past 12 months and next year will mean more mouths to feed from the same portion size.

The Ford Ranger and Toyota HiLux are on track to be the top two sellers this year, but Hanley suggests next year could be completely different.

He told CarsGuide the brand is forecasting about 40,000 sales next year, which is down on the 48,000 they sold through the first 11 months of this year and well down on the circa-55,000 units sold in 2024.

"But still, 40,000-plus is a big segment for us. So when I say the ute market's peaked, what I mean is that, well, exactly that, it's peaked. But it's still a significant market, and it will be for the future,” he said.

"But I think that whole ute market's going to be crazy for the next couple of years. So in the end it doesn't matter what I think. It matters what customers think.

"I'm confident customers will engage with this car, and I'm confident it'll sell well."

The influx of new utes such as the Kia Tasman, BYD Shark 6, MG U9 and JAC T9 have failed to deliver a big boost to the ute segment, with sales relatively stagnant through 11 months of this year.

So what will take the top honours in future sales races?

The new RAV4 is arriving early next year, and is likely to push the country’s best-selling non-ute over the top.

"We have already seen a shift in consumer preferences with our RAV4 taking out the title of our best-selling vehicle last year. And I believe that the strength of sales has and will continue,” Hanley said to CarsGuide earlier this year.

"With our all new RAV4 arriving in the first half of next year, we expect that shift to accelerate."

The new RAV4 brings new looks, improved tech and higher levels of safety than before.

It will be joined by its old sparring partner, the Mazda CX-5.

The new CX-5 is due in 2026 with bigger dimensions, as well as a more spacious, luxe and family-friendly cabin. 

The CX-5 is unlikely to give the RAV4 a true run for its money until the hybrid version arrives in 2027.

Chinese brands such as BYD, Chery, GWM and MG have some solid-selling SUVs, but they are unlikely to trouble for top spot in the near future.