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The rise and rise of Chinese car brands in Australia is testing the legacy brands like never before.
Relative newbies like BYD, Chery, GWM and MG are eating away at sales of carmakers with long histories in Australia.
What will 2026 bring for those historic brands in Australia? For some it will be a make or break year. The Federal Government’s emissions reduction scheme is also expected to start having more of an impact this year.
We make some predictions about what sort of year the non-Chinese brands in Australia’s top 10 will have in 2026.
Toyota may have stumbled in the January sales figures, down 22.3 per cent year on year, but the company put that down to stock irregularities with the changeover to new HiLux and low stock of outgoing RAV4.
Don’t expect too many more stumbles in 2026 from Brand T. A new RAV4 is just around the corner and from what we’ve heard, there’s quite the order bank for the family-friendly hybrid SUV for the coming months.
There’s not a lot of new product coming in 2026, but the hybrid LandCruiser 300 Series might give the off-roader a boost. Either way, expect Toyota to remain number one by a comfy margin come the end of the year.
Mazda is in an interesting position. The Japanese carmaker has had mixed sales success with its range of large rear- and all-wheel drive SUVs. The BT-50 ute remains a steady seller, and ageing models like the Mazda3, CX-3 and CX-30 continue to enjoy strong interest, despite a raft of new challengers, largely from China.
It will finally launch a couple of proper EVs in 2026, the Mazda6e sedan and CX-6e SUV, which are built in China through its local partner Changan. They’re not expected to add significant volume to Mazda’s tally. A new-gen CX-5 should give Mazda a leg up in 2026, but the much-needed hybrid won‘t arrive until 2027, which will likely blunt sales in the coming 12 months.
Ford will continue to rely almost exclusively on its Ranger and Everest twins for sales volume this year. The Ranger was Australia’s top-selling vehicle in 2025 (56,555 units) and the Everest was the most popular large SUV (26,161).
Beyond solid sales for the Transit Custom van and Mustang sports car, it’s unclear if Ford will be able to draw volume from anywhere else. As reported, the Blue Oval is expected to offer a China-sourced Bronco ‘New Energy’ medium SUV as a rugged looking alternative to the BYD Sealion 6. But we can’t see Ford increasing its sales by much in 2026.
The two Korean giants, Hyundai and Kia, will continue to battle each other this year. In 2025 Kia just edged its sister brand by 5000 sales and it managed third place in January this year. A continued EV push with the EV4 and updated EV6 will add incremental volume, but the new-gen Seltos small SUV won’t land until later this year.
There’s still life in the Sportage and Sorento, with new versions not expected until 2027. Both models continue to be strong sellers so expect Kia to either tread water or do a little better than last year.
Hyundai has a solid model range, including CarsGuide’s overall 2026 Car of the Year, the Santa Fe and the best Medium SUV under $130K, the Ioniq 5. In terms of new metal, the biggest addition will be the Elexio EV. A mid-size SUV, it will be priced keenly and take on the related Kia EV5, as well as the BYD Sealion 7.
New-gen versions of the popular Tucson medium SUV and i30 sedan are not due until next year, but we could see a facelift to the Santa Fe soon. But Hyundai should remain steady overall in 2026.
The other non-Chinese top 10 brand is Mitsubishi. The Japanese carmaker is in a period of flux, having just launched the more expensive new-gen ASX, but losing the Pajero Sport and Eclipse Cross.
The big news is the return of Pajero (or Pajero Sport), which has already been spied testing in Australia, by none other than CarsGuide’s own Production Editor, Jack Quick.
Timing for this is unclear and it might not land until next year, leaving Mitsubishi to battle the Chinese giants for another challenging year.
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