Game over for diesel utes: Rising fuel prices could finish off diesel utes in Australia with 2026 Ford Ranger, Toyota HiLux, Isuzu Ute D-Max and Mitsubishi Triton all at risk as plug-in hybrid workhorse the BYD Shark 6 grow in popularity: Analysis

Diesel utes have been the dominant forces in Australia for the past decade, but that could be about to change.

The Ford Ranger and the Toyota HiLux have been the top two sellers in the past 10 years, and they combined for more than 100,000 sales in 2025.

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Other diesel ute rivals such as the Isuzu Ute D-Max and Mitsubishi Triton are selling well. 

That could be all be about to change sooner than we thought. It could be the case that a perfect storm of external factors will wipe out the diesel in ute in Australia.

There is a new factor is emerging that could accelerate the diesel ute’s seemingly inevitable decline. 

The price of diesel fuel has increased substantially more than petrol, approaching the $3 mark per litre.

I went to fill up my diesel car the other day.

As I pulled into the service station, a man had just finished filling up his V8 diesel LandCruiser 200 Series. $287 for 99L - he had not even brimmed the tank. You’d get a better rate when topping up your light aircraft with aviation fuel. 

He asked if I wanted to swap. I politely declined.

No doubt big fleet buyers will be watching closely as the costs of purchasing and running these diesel utes shoots up, along with the potential increase in costs as NVES pressures creep in. 

Fleet sales are crucial to the success of the Ford Ranger and the Toyota HiLux, with them also contributing heavily to other ute brands.

Fuel prices will also be an increasingly big head turner for private buyers. Alternatives such as the petrol plug-in hybrid BYD Shark 6 offer superior fuel efficiency when charged as well as being cheaper to fill up.

Toyota announced its all-electric HiLux ute recently, which has been met with a mixed reception due to concerns over driving range and towing capacity, but it at least shows brands are already looking away from diesel. 

Chery’s incoming KP31 ute will debut in Australia this year with a diesel plug-in hybrid set-up, which is expected to have the 3500kg towing capacity. Something the Shark 6 currently lacks.

The popularity of diesel hybrid set-ups will be an indication of the survival chances for the diesel ute in Australia. 

It could be argued the longer diesel prices continue to rise, the shorter the diesel ute's lifespan will be.

Compounding this is new emissions laws.

The Federal Government's National Vehicle Emissions Standard (NVES) delivered a rude awakening for some. 

The NVES sets emissions targets based on CO2 gram-per-kilometre limits. Vehicles sold that fall over the limit subsequently incur liabilities, which will attract hefty fines in the future for brands. 

Brands incur fines on vehicles sold, which have an interim emissions value of more than zero. 

Mazda, which sells its BT-50 ute in Australia among an internal combustion heavy lineup, accumulated a whopping more than 500,000 liabilities. 

Subsequently many brands, including Honda and Mazda have introduced priced increases across key internal combustion models this year.

There appears to be two routes for brands. Either pass on the extra costs, or ditch diesel. 

Diesel utes could be about to skyrocket in price and brands scramble to account for fines on sales.

In a more extreme example, Ford CEO Jim Farley recently threatened to axe the brand’s local engineering program responsible for the best-selling Ford Ranger.

“Something your government, or any government, has to be very sensitive to [is] around the CO2 glide path. We want to reduce our CO2 footprint, but there’s a level that the customer can’t afford, and not all duty cycles can be electrified,” Farley told CarsGuide.

“It’s a completely open market and also [the Australian government is] pushing CO2 [emission reductions], arguably way beyond the customer requirements.

“[The Australian federal government] needs to decide if they want to help us equalise the cost differential … because this is among the most expensive places to have engineers on the planet.”

We have already seen somewhat of a winding back of Ford’s Ranger line-up Down Under, with the brand discontinuing sale of its bi-turbo diesel engine, in favour of a cleaner single turbo variant.