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Are China's carmakers in trouble? New car export growth expected to slow this year but will BYD, Deepal, GWM, MG, Xpeng, Zeekr and others manage to keep Australian sales high in 2025?

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John Law
Deputy News Editor
14 Jan 2025
3 min read

Last year was massive for China’s vehicle manufacturers with total exports swelling 19.3 per cent to five million vehicles, but analysts are forecasting a much slower 2025.

Next year, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) predicts exports will grow by a much smaller 5.8 per cent.

Keeping in line with softer global sales, electric vehicle exports from China dropped 10.4 per cent in 2024 while plug-in hybrids exploded, the country exporting 190 per cent more than in 2023. 

This is partially down to customer demand, there is also the tariff situation in Europe. A Reuters report found China had told carmakers to lower or pause investments in European nations that voted in favour of tariffs on electric cars, which could further impact exports in 2025. 

Other regions are welcoming investment from Chinese carmakers, with BYD working to set up production in Mexico. There are many other examples in Latin American countries as well as in the Middle East and South East Asia.

BYD Explorer car transporter
BYD Explorer car transporter

Additionally, Chinese domestic sales are expected to climb by 4.7 per cent to a staggering 32.9 million units next year. That is 30 times more sales than Australia and twice the size of the European and USA markets. Old car trade-in schemes and incentives to buy more fuel-efficient combustion vehicles and EVs are helping bolster sales at home. 

Electrified car sales in China are expected to slow down in 2025, though, with market share of what China calls ‘new energy vehicles’ (PHEVs, range extenders and BEVs) predicted to drop from 35.5 per cent to 24.4 per cent. 

2025 MG4
2025 MG4

In Australia, China’s previously meteoric rise saw a similar pause in 2024, the country shipping 8.9 per cent fewer cars Down Under compared to 2023. In contrast, imports from Japan were up 9.8 per cent and Thailand — the home of ute production — up 3.0 per cent. 

This is despite a flotilla of new Chinese brands and models arriving in Australia last year. As a mature market, this country only has so many new car buyers and it is set to contract further this year, according to market leader Toyota.

2025 BYD Sealion 6
2025 BYD Sealion 6
 

Chinese manufacturers will need to target emerging segments, as BYD is doing with the plug-in hybrid Shark 6 ute. It has 6000 orders already which is enough to bump PHEV sales by 25 per cent alone after they doubled in Australia last year. 

While China still looks to be a powerhouse in new-car sales in the next decade, its ascent in the Australian market may not be as rapid as first imagined. Discounting to move stock is already rampant and, in a contracting new-car market, it’s likely there will be corporate casualties.

2025 GWM Tank 500
2025 GWM Tank 500
John Law
Deputy News Editor
Born in Sydney’s Inner West, John wasn’t treated to the usual suite of Aussie-built family cars growing up, with his parents choosing quirky (often chevroned) French motors that shaped his love of cars. The call of motoring journalism was too strong to deny and in 2019 John kickstarted his career at Chasing Cars. A move to WhichCar and Wheels magazine exposed him to a different side of the industry and the glossy pages of physical magazines. John is back on the digital side of things at CarsGuide, where he’s taken up a role as Deputy News Editor spinning yarns about the latest happenings in the automotive industry. When he isn’t working, John can be found tooling around in either his 2002 Renault Clio Sport 172 or 1983 Alfasud Gold Cloverleaf.  
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