Last year was massive for China’s vehicle manufacturers with total exports swelling 19.3 per cent to five million vehicles, but analysts are forecasting a much slower 2025.
Next year, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) predicts exports will grow by a much smaller 5.8 per cent.
Keeping in line with softer global sales, electric vehicle exports from China dropped 10.4 per cent in 2024 while plug-in hybrids exploded, the country exporting 190 per cent more than in 2023.
This is partially down to customer demand, there is also the tariff situation in Europe. A Reuters report found China had told carmakers to lower or pause investments in European nations that voted in favour of tariffs on electric cars, which could further impact exports in 2025.
Other regions are welcoming investment from Chinese carmakers, with BYD working to set up production in Mexico. There are many other examples in Latin American countries as well as in the Middle East and South East Asia.

Additionally, Chinese domestic sales are expected to climb by 4.7 per cent to a staggering 32.9 million units next year. That is 30 times more sales than Australia and twice the size of the European and USA markets. Old car trade-in schemes and incentives to buy more fuel-efficient combustion vehicles and EVs are helping bolster sales at home.
Electrified car sales in China are expected to slow down in 2025, though, with market share of what China calls ‘new energy vehicles’ (PHEVs, range extenders and BEVs) predicted to drop from 35.5 per cent to 24.4 per cent.

In Australia, China’s previously meteoric rise saw a similar pause in 2024, the country shipping 8.9 per cent fewer cars Down Under compared to 2023. In contrast, imports from Japan were up 9.8 per cent and Thailand — the home of ute production — up 3.0 per cent.
This is despite a flotilla of new Chinese brands and models arriving in Australia last year. As a mature market, this country only has so many new car buyers and it is set to contract further this year, according to market leader Toyota.

Chinese manufacturers will need to target emerging segments, as BYD is doing with the plug-in hybrid Shark 6 ute. It has 6000 orders already which is enough to bump PHEV sales by 25 per cent alone after they doubled in Australia last year.
While China still looks to be a powerhouse in new-car sales in the next decade, its ascent in the Australian market may not be as rapid as first imagined. Discounting to move stock is already rampant and, in a contracting new-car market, it’s likely there will be corporate casualties.
