2026 Toyota RAV4 and HiLux will save Toyota from further sales slide as brand fends off Kia, BYD with strong interest in LandCruiser 300 and bZ4X EV

Toyota is currently experiencing a rare sales dip in Australia, but is it a longer-term issue or just a temporary blip?

As the world’s biggest carmaker - and Australia’s number one brand for the past 23 years - you can bet the Japanese giant isn’t just sitting back and waiting for new and old rivals to pounce.

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Brand T finished quarter one with 44,490 units sold, which is a hefty 23 per cent down on the same quarter in 2025.

But before you start writing Toyota’s obituary, there are some clear reasons for the drop. The changeover of its two biggest sellers is the main reason. The new RAV4 is now officially on sale but Toyota sold so many of them at the end of last year they didn’t have enough old stock to cover the gap to the new model.

That’s why RAV4 sales are down a whopping 72.2 per cent in the first three months of the year.

Similarly, Toyota was waiting on some variants of its heavily revised new HiLux ute to come on stream and that’s only just happening now. Sales of the ute took a while to ramp up following its introduction late last year, but it’s now steady, with 4x4 versions only down by 3.3 per cent year to date.

Toyota Australia Vice President Sales, Marketing and Franchise Operations, John Pappas, said that official VFACTS sales figures don’t tell the whole story, and painted a better picture for the rest of the year.

“Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, as HiLux and RAV4 volumes increase, our monthly results will begin to increase as the year progresses. And whilst VFACTS tells you what has been delivered, it doesn't tell you the full story. What VFACTS doesn't show is customer demand, which remains very strong across the range, particularly with vehicles like LandCruiser 300, HiLux, LandCruiser Prado and, of course, the RAV4.”

April will be the new-generation RAV4’s first full month on sale so we will wait and see what the sales figures are come the end of this month.

Other popular models with big sales declines include the Kluger (-33.3% YTD), Prado (-46.5%) and Yaris Cross (-18.5%), but other models are enjoying renewed interest.

The LandCruiser is up a massive 216 per cent year on year, while the Corolla Cross SUV and HiAce van are in positive territory too. But the biggest surprise is the bZ4X.

Toyota's first fully electric car benefited from an update that rolled out a couple of months ago and it has helped turn its sales fortunes around. Following the original version’s launch in early 2024, the EV has been a middling seller, playing second fiddle to a bunch of cheaper, largely Chinese EVs of a similar size.

But in March, Toyota sold 447 units, a 598.4 per cent increase. It’s up 300 per cent year to date.

Pappas said the updated car had been very well received and added that Toyota expected to sell 5000 examples in 2026. That’s a massive increase from the 1041 it sold for the entirety of last year.

The bZ4X will get a further boost from the ‘Touring’ wagon version that is expected to land later this year. Other new low-emission vehicles include the HiLux BEV in quarter two and the RAV4 plug-in hybrid later in 2026.

Other new models like the electric C-HR won’t arrive until mid-2027, while Toyota is still yet to confirm if it will launch the all-electric Highlander in Australia. The seven-seat SUV could be a rival for the Kia EV9, if it gets the green light.

Other models that Toyota has not confirmed but could be on the radar include the Grand Highlander, which could replace the ageing Kluger, as well as the US-sourced Tacoma pick-up to fill the gap between the HiLux and upper-large Tundra.

Toyota also builds a number of EVs in China with joint venture partners GAC, FAW and even BYD. Models like the bZ3 sedan, bZ7 and bX3X crossover are comparatively more affordable than Japan-sourced electric models.

Pappas did not rule out importing Chinese-made Toyota models for Australia,

“The beautiful thing about being such a global organisation, where you’re represented in 190 countries, and you've got so many manufacturing sources around the world, it really does open us up to having those options available if they become available to us,” he said.

“So we're always looking at those types of things. And… I go back to making sure they suit the requirements of the customer. And if they do that, then we're open to looking at those types of avenues.”

Japanese rival Mazda has just launched two EVs built in China with its joint-venture partner Changan, while Mitsubishi will offer the Foxconn EV in Australia soon. Nissan is also believed to be considering a number of models for Australia from its partnership with Dongfeng.