The car of the future will not kill

And the western world could be looking at fatality-free roads within a generation...

...according to Toyota’s corporate manager of product planning, Peter Evans. But the size of Australia could prevent us getting the necessary technology.

Speaking at this week’s Work Smarter conference — run by leading civil engineering and road infrastructure design software company 12d Solutions – Evans said interaction between the road and the car would be critical to erase fatalities in the future.

In that world, your car will keep to the speed limit, stay a safe distance from other traffic, not stray out of its lane and get enough warning of pedestrians to avoid hitting them. It may even ease the pain of the city commute by ensuring a smooth traffic flow.

“Bring in that technology, such as overhead infra-red beams, and … for example, drivers can be warned of traffic signals and pedestrians ahead,” he said.

“Certainly drivers would appreciate some help in city areas. It’s been estimated that a driver traversing one city block in a busy downtown area receives more sensory inputs than a pilot landing an aircraft.

“On the open road, roadside infrastructure can also cooperate with vehicles to provide advanced cruise-assist highway systems. “

However there are still some hurdles along the way, including the development of design tools for interactive infrastructure, the commitment of government authorities in implementing it – and their desire to impose more control on private vehicles.

“Planning for the longer term will mean deciding on what type of roadside infrastructure is desirable and, also, what method or methods will be used to seamlessly transfer data,” Evans said.

“Legislators would like to go a step further and beam or force-in speed controls from the roadside to a vehicle. But this would mean giving the local road authority access to the technology at the very heart of the vehicle.”

He said carmakers are unlikely to be enthusiastic about that, because the intellectual property contained in that technology is “very tightly held” by manufacturers.

However the infrastructure design itself will not be a barrier, 12d Solutions managing director Dr Lee Gregory said.

“Software tools for the design of the next generation of infrastructure would be esily developed from our existing software, and we see no difficulty in delivering to designers the tools they need even in a shorter timeframe than indicated.

And while cynics might think it would be impossible to get federal, state and local governments to work together on such a development, that kind of collaboration is already happening.

The New South Wales Road and Traffic Authority’s general manager of corporate planning and performance, Brendan Nugent, said an in-principle agreement is in place to have a national safety body with key roles from across the country.

“There’s a high level of commitment to having a national approach, which comes out of the success we’ve had with the Australian road rules consistency,” Nugent said.

“So it’s possible to achieve. The cutting edge will occur in the European Union, where they are talking about roadside ‘furniture’ controlling some aspects of heavy vehicle traffic.”

In the end, it seems the only unchangeable hurdle to the development of a total vehicle-to-infrastructure communication in Australia will be the size of the country and our small population.

“In Australia, the sheer length of roads versus population density will more likely mean vehicles are guided by means other than roadside infrastructure – probably a combination of GPS and optical recognition,” Evans said.

“We might see a combination of advanced lane keep assist working with active radar cruise control and pre-crash brake technology and GPS to create autonomous self-guided capability.”

Evans said other benefits from systems that produce a smooth swift traffic flow would include reduced fuel consumptions and therefore reduced emissions – both CO2 and NOx – to levels that may become mandatory in the future.

“In Europe, they’re already talking about an average 105 grams per kilometre C02 emissions for all vehicles and it will surely go lower,” he said, pointing out that the new Prius being launched next week will have an official CO2 rating of 89 grams.

But he says while these requirements will also force a change in the way we think about getting from A to B, it may not mean we’ll be abandoning our personal vehicles in favour of public transport – or even abandoning the fun side of motoring.

“An automotive society regulated by emissions rather than by speed will change current paradigms,” he said.

“Under a regime where vehicles must have average CO2 ratings of around 100 grams per kilometre, vehicles won’t be capable of being much faster than 100km/h. A commuter car might only do 80km/h.

“Will that lead to a move to a rejection of the motor car in favour of mass mobility? I don't think so.

“Regardless of the continuous lobby for mass transportation; the car — or personal mobility if you like — will still be the vehicle of choice.

“And I think there would be a hug push back against any developments that removed the enjoyment of motoring.”